Phil Hogan had promised the Twenty-Seven at the Council of Trade Ministers on Thursday 16 April (see EUROPE 12468/15): on the 17 April, his services published a first analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on world and European trade, according to which the manufacturing sectors will suffer most from the crisis.
In 2020, the measures adopted to contain the expansion of the COVID-19 virus and the resulting economic contraction are expected to result in a 9.2% drop in exports of goods and services outside the EU and an 8.8% drop in imports.
In absolute terms, this equates to a fall in exports of around €285 billion and a fall in imports of around €240 billion.
While some services have been hit hard by these restrictions, the European Commission believes that the impact will be particularly painful for manufacturing sectors. Most of them, especially transport equipment and machinery, are already experiencing a contraction in exports of more than 10%, the analysis says.
However, the Commission admits a “high level of uncertainty” about these figures and further analyses are expected to follow as early as May.
It should be recalled that the World Trade Organization has also published global forecasts (see EUROPE 12464/3).
To read the opinion: https://bit.ly/2VGsZff (Original version in French by Hermine Donceel)