On 12 March, the trade ministers of the Twenty-Seven will discuss their relations with their two main trading partners, the United States - with which the EU wants to quickly seal a mini-trade agreement (see other article and EUROPE 12427/10) - and China.
First observation: the slowdown in the global economy, with the world's factory being hit hard by the coronavirus epidemic and global production lines being disrupted.
Moreover, while 2019 had raised hopes for a comprehensive investment agreement with China and celebrated the conclusion of a Geographical Indications (GI) agreement, 2020 is shaping up to be a bleak year. Further negotiations are of course hampered by the epidemic (see EUROPE 12431/17). Technical discussions are continuing, with negotiators meeting by videoconference the week of 9 March. But the summit meetings are cancelled, when it is this political impetus that these negotiations need.
Sources close to the talks deplore a new lukewarmness in Beijing since the signing of the first pillar of the US-China trade agreement. Momentum seems to be waning: the prospect of an investment agreement in 2020 is receding and with it the likelihood of rebalancing European investors' access to China. Worse, with the US/China mini-agreement, they would now be at a disadvantage compared to their US competitors and the GI agreement jeopardised by certain requests from Washington to Beijing.
Faced with this new impasse, the trade ministers may have the opportunity to reflect on their countries' dependence on China and, as Bruno Le Maire, French Minister of the Economy, stated on 25 February, to turn this crisis into a "game changer". (Original version in French by Hermine Donceel)