On Monday, 11 November, foreign ministers might adopt a framework sanctions regime for Turkey at their Council meeting. At present, the regime contains no actions or names.
The Foreign Affairs Council on 14 October decided to set up a framework regime of restrictive measures in retaliation for Turkey's continued “illegal” drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean (see EUROPE 12348/2).
On Friday, 8 November, a European source said that “at this stage, it is not clear whether the Council will adopt the legal framework, as some delegations still have reservations about it”, while some diplomats were more optimistic about it being approved. The Hungarian government has yet to give its approval, its support delayed by the visit to Budapest by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 7 and 8 November. Some States also need to remove parliamentary reservations. The sanctions framework will contain no names for the time being, even though some names have already been mentioned, according to one source.
According to a Presidency document obtained by EUROPE, those natural or legal persons, entities and bodies that could be subject to restrictive measures would be treated as such because they are “responsible for or involved in planning, preparing, participating in, managing, or assisting in drilling activities related to the exploration for and production of hydrocarbons, or the extraction of hydrocarbons resulting from such activities not authorised by the Republic of Cyprus in its territorial waters and its exclusive economic zone, or on its continental shelf”. Providing financial, technical or material support for these activities may also be subject to measures, as may being associated with the natural or legal persons, entities or bodies involved.
In addition to this decision, ministers might revisit Turkey's unilateral military action in north-eastern Syria, particularly implementation of the arms export policy to Turkey, in line with the commitments made at the October Council (see EUROPE 12348/1).
Afghanistan. Ministers will discuss the situation in Afghanistan. The discussion, which was initially scheduled for October, was postponed due to time constraints. Ministers are expected to review the period following the 28 September presidential election and the efforts to support and promote an inclusive and transparent peace process. The USA and the Taliban might resume their talks against the background of a worrying security and humanitarian context on the ground. According to sources, the aim of the discussion is to see how the European Union might play a political role and become more involved, and also to send a message to Afghanistan.
The Gulf. The security situation in the Gulf and Iran will be discussed. “The aim is to have a broad discussion on stability and security in the whole region and the role that the EU can play”, said one diplomat.
The Council is expected to revisit the Iranian nuclear agreement, given that President Rohani announced new measures this week that are in breach of the agreement (see EUROPE 12363/14). The EU is waiting for the report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which should be released in the next few days, to establish a more precise position.
Ministers may revisit the demonstrations in Iraq (see EUROPE 12365/22) and the agreement between the government and southern separatists in Yemen (see EUROPE 12364/19).
Sudan. At lunch, the foreign ministers will be joined by Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who will present his government's priorities. The discussion will be an opportunity to examine how the EU might play an active role in supporting and consolidating the political transition in Sudan.
Other items. The Council is expected to revisit Venezuela urgently, following the international conference on the migration and refugee crisis, and to revisit the ongoing work carried out by the contact group and the EU envoy. Ministers are expected to extend the sanctions against the country for a further year, without debating the matter (see EUROPE 12124/20).
The ongoing demonstrations in Lebanon might be raised, as well as the situation in Libya and the Sahel. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is also expected to provide an assessment of both her visit to China on 24 October and the situation in Hong Kong. The Council might agree, without discussing the matter, to open negotiations with Somalia with a view to reaching an agreement on the status of EUTM Somalia, in order to contribute to training the Somali security forces. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)