With all Brexit options still on the table – from ‘no deal’ to a second referendum to revoking Article 50 – the EU and UK will continue to have the same fight, even after the UK election.
On 12 December UK voters will go to the polls for the third time in as many years. Like the 2017 vote, this is a Brexit election, with polling expert Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University confirming that Brexit is, by far, the most important issue on voters’ minds.
For the conservative government, the election is a chance to win the majority they need to “get Brexit done”. Labour has pledged to hold a referendum – what it’s calling a “final say vote” – within six months of being elected, in which it will ask voters whether they want to stay in the EU or sign up to a renegotiated exit treaty that includes a customs union and “a close single market relationship”. The Liberal Democrats want to revoke article 50 and reverse Brexit, while the Scottish National Party is pitching itself as a rival ‘remain’ party, pledging to lock the Tories out of government and hold a Scottish independence referendum next year. Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, with the support of US president Donald Trump, has proposed a ‘Leave alliance’ with the Conservatives – a proposal that was swiftly rejected but that, according to pollsters at YouGov, has the backing of 70% of those who intend to vote Conservative in December (and 81% of intended Brexit Party voters).
The Conservatives currently have a large lead on their opposition. The latest Ipsos MORI poll published on 31 October gives them 41% of the vote, with a 17-point lead over Labour (with 24%) and a 21-point lead over the Lib Dems (at 20%). According to pollsters at Kantar, the most popular Brexit scenario (for 32% of people polled in mid-October) is to remain in the EU. A small majority (38%) say they would vote to remain in the EU in a second referendum, with 37% say they would vote to Leave.
But the election is not the end of the story, just as the recently agreed Brexit extension to 31 January was not (see EUROPE 12359/4).
In fact, the next Brexit challenge will emerge over the next few days, when the UK is required to nominate a replacement for its outgoing EU commissioner, Julian King. In a letter to the UK prime minister this week, Commission president-elect Ursula von der Leyen asked for a response within “a very short deadline”, and reportedly requested the prime minister consider female nominees (see EUROPE 12364/13). She wants a vote on her full team to take place by the end of November. “We are waiting for a response from the UK and we will not speculate beyond that,” a Commission spokesperson said on Friday. “We have now reminded Prime Minister Johnson of this legal obligation.”
Not long after the election, on 31 January, the UK (under a conservative government) has pledged to leave the EU. But even this deadline isn’t set in stone, as a Labour government would seek to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, which it says it can do in three months. Shortly after that, on 1 July, the UK will have to decide whether it wants to extend the post-Brexit transition period beyond 31 December. Any extension would require the UK to pay more into the EU budget, which, as seen in Brussels this week, is still a contentious subject among the EU27.
If it fails to agree on a transition extension – an option ruled out by head of the cabinet office, Michael Gove – a new government will have just 11 months to negotiate a new trade deal. Open Europe’s Dominic Walsh believes doing a deal in that time is difficult but not impossible, given “the unique importance of the UK-EU relationship and the pressure of multiple deadlines”.
But EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier was again talking tough about competition fears on a trip to Lisbon this week, insisting that any future EU-UK relationship “will be based on a strong level playing field”.
There’s plenty to play for yet. (Sarah Collins)