Another week full of uncertainty opened on Monday 21 October regarding an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed on Saturday 19 October to get Members of the House of Commons to vote on the agreement reached on 17 October with the Twenty-Seven (see EUROPE 12351/1).
This incident related to an unexpected amendment from the Prime Minister's side - an amendment by MP Oliver Letwin calling for a postponement of Brexit to ensure that a no deal was avoided was adopted by 322 votes to 306 - had not yet been resolved on Monday 21 October, as we were going to press.
House of Commons Speaker John Bercow refused Boris Johnson's new attempt to submit a vote on the draft agreement on Monday, adding to the confusion over the timetable from now to 31 October, the date on which the country should benefit from an extension of the Article 50 period to avoid an accidental exit without agreement. But a vote on the law implementing the United Kingdom's orderly withdrawal from the EU (one of the required measures) could take place in the evening, thus possibly allowing the government to finally vote on its agreement on Tuesday 22 October. Amendments would then also be put to the vote, calling, for example, for a customs union with the EU once again, or even a referendum... making it just as uncertain that a vote on the agreement itself would take place.
This confusion in London is in any case also weighing on the agenda of the European Parliament, which had once imagined that it would be able to ratify the agreement on 24 October, but which must now consider another possibility, potentially next week, by convening an exceptional session which could extend, if necessary, until 31 October.
The Presidents of the political groups were to discuss this on Monday at the end of the day and determine the way forward. The EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, was scheduled to meet behind closed doors in the evening with the Committee on Constitutional Affairs, which will be responsible for launching the ratification preparations.
There are several pitfalls for the European Parliament: if some of the groups do not want to "rush" a vote this week and have time to properly evaluate the agreement on the table, as pointed out by the EPP and the S&D, "it will be the holidays next week and there will be no one in Parliament", worries another source, wondering whether this Westminster vote will ever happen. In any case, the Brexit Steering Board at Parliament had strongly recommended to the Conference of Presidents of the groups in the early afternoon that no Parliament vote should be taken until Westminster had ratified the agreement in due form.
In the meantime, Boris Johnson complied on Saturday 19 October, with the so-called Benn Act, which required him on that date, in the absence of a ratified agreement, to send a request for an extension of the Article 50 period. Three letters have arrived, including a request for an extension not signed by the Prime Minister, but still valid, as confirmed by the European Commission on Monday at noon, and a personal letter to President Donald Tusk, in which Boris Johnson reiterates that a new deadline is not a good thing.
The Twenty-Seven took note of these letters on 21 October and this week Donald Tusk will consult European leaders. A short-term technical extension would not justify a new Summit, but a further rejection of the agreement in London - if this vote were to take place - would again trigger a crisis meeting and a new discussion on the justifications for granting or not granting a new extension after 31 October. Michel Barnier will inform the college of Commissioners on Tuesday 22 October. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)