The scenario may feel like déjà vu, but the key players have changed and the epilogue may be different.
After three failures under Theresa May in the House of Commons between November 2018 and April 2019, it was with a British Prime Minister – who threatened once again this summer to leave without a deal on 31 October –that the Twenty-Seven reached an agreement on Thursday 17 October regarding the United Kingdom's ordered exit from the EU. They gave the green light to the text concluded by the negotiators (see other news). For his part, the President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli, said that Parliament would be ready to do its ratification work.
If these same British MPs were to give their approval on Saturday 19 October, the date upon which Boris Johnson has convened them, and if the European Parliament, in this context, ratified the text next week in Strasbourg, the country would leave the EU on 1 November 2019, entering a 14-month transition period until the end of 2020, before becoming a non-Member State with full effect from 1 January 2021.
“The reality is that today we have an agreement that avoids chaos” between the EU and the United Kingdom, noted the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, at the end of the day. The Pole, who will leave office on 1 December, has once again said everything he thought about the Brexit process, referring to “sadness”. “In my heart, I will always be a ‘Remainer’”.
In the meantime, he said, the United Kingdom has made a major concession by accepting that customs and regulatory controls should be carried out between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and not on the island of Ireland, as Boris Johnson had once mooted in respect of customs checks.
However, the same could be said of the EU: in 2018, Michel Barnier, speaking on behalf of the EU, said that they could never entrust a non-Member State with the collection of its customs duties, which it has now accepted.
As for the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, this text is “more than an agreement, it is a legal text that provides certainty” and makes it possible to protect the “rights of our citizens, stability on the island of Ireland, and peace”. This agreement is “for citizens”, he insisted, while also welcoming the fact that the rights of the 4.5 million European citizens living in the United Kingdom and those Britons living in the EU, are protected. “They will be able to continue to live their lives as they did before”.
Boris Johnson reiterated, at the end of the meeting, that this agreement would allow his country to once again decide on its future, its laws, “to regain control”, and to refinance sectors such as the police. He said he was “very confident” that British MPs would validate this agreement on 19 October and that Brexit could be finally implemented. “We are also able to build our relationship with our friends and partners now; that is the very exciting and positive side of this project”, added the British leader, who did not want to comment on the announcement made by the DUP, the Northern Irish Unionist Party, who said they would vote against the draft agreement.
“It is a moment of optimism, a positive moment”, commented Charles Michel, the Belgian Prime Minister and the next President of the European Council. “The main concern was related to the integrity of the internal market. Michel Barnier agreed that the mechanisms put in place would protect the integrity of the internal market”. It is ”very important that British companies are not able to compete unfairly”, he said.
Michel Barnier “has achieved something, a political art”. “Over more than 2 years, he has satisfied the demands of the Twenty-Seven, kept the European Parliament informed, and nobody has ever felt mistrustful or misinformed. I would like to thank him”, said Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. She also said that the issue of there potentially being a new failure on Saturday, and a new extension, had not been addressed by the leaders. At the opening of the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his optimism, referring to “good news” and an agreement that “meets our collective objectives”. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with editorial staff)