A Brexit deal may be impossible, but a ‘no-deal’ exit definitely is – even if the cliff edge is delayed beyond 31 October. At some point, an agreement (or agreements) will have to be struck.
This week, everyone but the British government seems to have taken control of Brexit.
Boris Johnson – the man the Guardian’s John Crace is calling the “Clown Prince” – is now head of a minority government, after 22 conservative MPs (including his own brother) either defected or resigned. Opposition MPs and the House of Lords are in the driving seat as they rush to approve a bill to delay Article 50 in the event of no deal, which they are trying do before Parliament is suspended next week (EUROPE 12321/12). They are also resisting Mr Johnson’s attempts to hold a general election before Brexit day (an election he has repeatedly said he doesn’t want).
On the other side of the Channel, the EU has been steadily but firmly rebutting the UK’s claims that Brexit talks are making progress (EUROPE 12320A1). After a meeting with UK Brexit negotiator David Frost this week, the European Commission told EU diplomats that nothing had changed – except for the fact that the UK is demanding further amendments to the withdrawal agreement.
The demands will not be any easier to agree than the UK’s bid to ditch the Irish border backstop. In fact, they are the reasons for which the backstop was created in the first place. While the UK has not outlined its demands in detail, the Commission has indicated they include a watering down of guarantees on fair competition and amendments to the dispute settlement system.
These changes would, in effect, shatter the EU’s efforts to ensure a “level playing field” with the UK on future trade, as they would allow the UK the freedom to diverge from EU standards. That would, by definition, create friction at the Irish border, as EU customs officials and health inspectors would be required to carry out more checks.
The UK’s demands may be a way to distract EU negotiators from the lack of progress on the backstop, for which the UK has yet to table an alternative. But the move looks more like a signal to the US that a post-Brexit Britain will ready and able to do a wide-ranging trade deal.
Both sides have painted themselves into their respective corners, it seems. Absent from the debate is an acknowledgement that Brexit day is not the end of the road. Because even if the EU and UK manage to keep trade and travel going on 1 November, that won’t last forever. (Sarah Collins)