The European Union's chief negotiator on Brexit, Michel Barnier, said on Tuesday 2 April that it was “striking and certainly disappointing” to see that there is “no positive majority” in the British House of Commons on the terms of the British withdrawal, ten days before the exit date now set.
The day before, British MPs had again rejected four exit options, including maintaining a permanent customs union between the United Kingdom and the EU (276 votes in favour, 279 against) and holding a second popular vote to give the British people another say (292 votes in favour, 280 against). A week earlier, they had rejected eight of them (see EUROPE 12224/22).
Mr Barnier, who spoke at the European Policy Centre (EPC) think tank and then before the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs, considered three scenarios: - the still “possible” adoption of the divorce agreement championed by Mrs May through a possible fourth “meaningful vote” on Thursday;- a no-deal Brexit, an option that “we do not want, but we are prepared for”, or - a long, conditional, extension of the deadlines laid down in Article 50 of the Treaty.
The former French Foreign Minister said that the latter option would entail “significant risks” for the EU, particularly for the decision-making autonomy of the Twenty-Seven, and would also lead to the United Kingdom having to “organise European elections” at the end of May. And it would also require an “extremely strong justification” from London.
With regard to a possible no-deal Brexit, Mr Barnier considered this scenario “more and more likely every day”. But he said he still has “patience”, hoping that the United Kingdom will “do what it has to do”.
Beware of the loss of trust that a no-deal Brexit would engender
In the meantime, the EU's chief negotiator has already issued a warning to the British political class, who may be tempted to return to Brussels after a no-deal Brexit with the idea of negotiating a bilateral free trade agreement.
The provisions of the ordered withdrawal agreement “will remain on the table”, he warned, with its demands on citizens' rights, the issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and financial regulation. Without a positive response to these three requirements, London may find it difficult to find a partner open to discussion.
The EU negotiator has also already anticipated the atmosphere that will prevail at that time. “We will have to open a negotiation in a very different atmosphere because of the ‘no deal’”, with “very fragile trust”.
In the meantime, Michel Barnier reiterated his offer to review the political declaration on future bilateral relations which, as it currently exists, is “really a minimum”. The United Kingdom, for example, can ask to create a customs union with the EU along the lines of the one between the EU and Turkey, but “with agricultural products in addition”, he explained to MEPs.
On Ireland and Northern Ireland, the negotiator expressed regret that his first draft backstop was not retained. The original idea was for regulatory alignment only for Northern Ireland and not for the whole of the British territory as the agreement on the table provides for at the request of the British. According to Mr Barnier, this initial project would have provided the required operational solutions and would not, under any circumstances, have established “a border in the Irish Sea”.
On Monday, the option to revoke Article 50 was rejected (191 votes in favour, 292 against) as well as the motion suggesting participation in the common market (261 votes in favour, 282 against).
Between Wednesday 3 April and Friday 5 April, the European Commission will present new measures to prepare the EU for a no deal scenario in the customs, fisheries and environment sectors.
Preparation for the extraordinary summit
As part of the preparatory discussions for the extraordinary European summit on Brexit, scheduled for Wednesday 10 April, French President Emmanuel Macron and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar took stock of the situation.
“The House of Commons' threefold rejection of the agreement, as well as the rejection at this stage of any alternative plan, puts us on the path to a no-deal exit. It is up to the United Kingdom to present a credible alternative plan, supported by a majority, by 12 April, to avoid this. If the United Kingdom is not able, almost three years after the referendum, to propose a solution that gathers a majority, it will have de facto chosen to leave without a deal”, Mr Macron said. Furthermore: “We cannot avoid failure in its place”.
The French President said he was “open” to a British plan that would provide for “new elections, a referendum, a different solution for the future relationship such as a customs union”. “It is up to London to say it and say it now”, he said.
However, Mr Macron warned that “a long extension [of deadlines] involving UK participation in European elections and EU institutions is not obvious or automatic”, the priority of The Twenty-Seven being “the proper functioning of the EU and the single market”. “The EU cannot be permanently held hostage to the resolution of a political crisis in the United Kingdom”, he insisted, emphasising the “project” for the EU that the Twenty-Seven need to build, starting with the Sibiu Summit on 9 May.
“The United Kingdom was consumed by Brexit, but Ireland and France should not be consumed by Brexit”, said Mr Varadkar, also emphasising “the need to set a forward-looking agenda for the EU”.
At this stage, according to the Taoiseach, the United Kingdom will leave the Union without a deal on Friday 12 April. But there is still some time left for British Prime Minister Theresa May to make “credible” proposals that have a clear path to success. “We need to be open”, he stressed, particularly to the reopening of the declaration on a future relationship. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Mathieu Bion)