With less than two months to go before Brexit day, a deal seems as elusive as ever. If it doesn’t happen on 29 March, when and how will it ever happen?
For the first time this week, UK government ministers and officials have openly talked of a (short) extension to the article 50 negotiating timetable. UK foreign minister Jeremy Hunt told BBC radio that the UK might need “some extra time” in case negotiators manage to reach a deal only in, say, mid-March, which both EU and UK parliaments would still need to approve. It looks like British politicians are now where the EU was almost a year ago on the idea of a “technical” extension to article 50, lasting probably until the summer.
However, the EU has little appetite for a “technical” extension that will yield no results, and has taken a more hard-line stance following a round of non-binding votes in the UK parliament this week (see EUROPE 12183).
The most important vote, written by influential backbench Conservative MP Graham Brady, called for the Irish border backstop to be scrapped in favour of “alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border”. The Brady amendment passed by a majority of just 16 votes, but has the backing of the prime minister, meaning Theresa May will be returning to Brussels in the near future (date to be confirmed).
She may not receive a warm welcome. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told MEPs that the deal “will not be renegotiated” and said of the Brady amendment: “A concept is not a plan. It is not an operational solution.” EU lead negotiator, Michel Barnier, echoed Mr Juncker’s comments, expressing his surprise that the Prime Minister “distanced herself from the agreement she herself negotiated”.
Danish, German and Irish officials and politicians have stood strong on the backstop, while Scottish National Party MP Ian Blackford even went so far as to accuse the Conservative Party of having “effectively ripped apart the Good Friday Agreement” by trying to avoid the backstop.
British prime minister Theresa May now has two tasks: trying to win cross-party support for her deal, and convincing the EU to reopen negotiations, at least on the future relationship. But both tasks will require a perceptible shift in the UK government's Brexit policy, in favour of closer ties with the EU, which won’t please Tory or Labour Brexiteers. Analysts at the Eurasia Group believe the likeliest outcome will be “a permanent Customs Union, following a short extension of Article 50”, but they are not ruling out a second referendum, a general election or no deal.
The UK houses of parliament have cancelled their winter break to allow for an update from Mrs May, tentatively scheduled for 13 February, with another series of votes expected (probably the following week).
It has been a bad week for EU-UK relations, and not only because of the wrangling in Westminster. UK officials are accusing Spain of pushing for “completely inappropriate” language on Gibraltar into an EU text on post-Brexit visa-free travel. A footnote in the draft regulation – which was discussed by EU ambassadors on Friday morning (see other news) – calls Gibraltar a British “colony” and refers to a “controversy” over its sovereignty.
“Gibraltar is a full part of the UK family and has a mature and modern constitutional relationship with the UK,” a British government spokesperson said. (Sarah Collins)