It is already more than three years since the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) saw all countries of the world pledge to keep global warming at less than 2°C more than pre-industrial levels and, if possible, to step up their efforts so as to limit this increase to 1.5°C by 2100. The European Union, which has ratified it, has set itself the official targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared to 1990 figures by 2030, producing 32% of its energy consumption from renewable sources and improving its energy efficiency by 32.5%.
On 8 October 2018, the IPCC’s latest report sounded the alarm. At current rates, the global temperature will have risen by 3°C by the end of the century. Between 1900 and 2016, the average increase was already 1°C and the pace of the temperature rise is set to speed up. There is an urgent need to aim for below 1.5°C, by stabilising emissions from 2020, reducing them, from 2030 onwards, by 45% compared to 2010 figures and reaching carbon neutrality (zero emissions) by 2050.
Many figures from the world of science and NGOs active in this field immediately relayed these concerns at political level. On 9 October, the ‘Environment’ Council, with an ‘East-West’ divide running through it, was unable to agree on the possibility of making an announcement at COP24 of a more ambitious target (cutting emissions by 55% by 2030), but said that it was minded to consider it in 2020 if other parties did likewise (see EUROPE 12113). This position was reiterated by the European Council of 18 October (see EUROPE 12120). The Parliament has shown far more willing, adopting the above-mentioned target in a resolution of 25 October (see EUROPE 12125).
At the end of November, the UN urged the international community to speed up the fight against global warming. These calls failed to have the desired effect on the Polish government – which was tasked with chairing COP24, held in Katowice in December 2018 - or on several of the delegations. It did no more than to take note of the work of the IPCC. By the evening of 15 December, the main achievement of the UN conference was the adoption, by 196 countries, of common and transparent rules on carbon emissions accounting, actions implemented and submissions to the UN (Paris Rulebook), which is of obvious benefit. However, the representatives of 25 countries from various continents issued a press release underlining their commitment to review the targets without delay, forming a High Ambition Coalition that has since been joined by China. This text was signed off by the European Commission and a minority of EU member states: Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, the UK and Sweden (see EUROPE 12159 and 12161). The other 17, some of which harbour misgivings, others outright hostility, include the states holding the Presidency of the Council at the time and currently, as well as just one founding state: Belgium.
Happily, the fact that this major episode illustrates how greatly the Union is divided at the highest level on the most important issue of the century did not prevent the inter-institutional machinery from producing relevant legislative results. Even though these were limited to recent decisions, this is a good outcome for the environment.
On 4 December came the formal adoption of three legislative acts on energy efficiency and renewable energies (see EUROPE 12151). On 12 December, there were trilogue agreements on the directive on the delivery of waste from ships in port (rather than into the sea, as is often the case today) and the decision bolstering support in the event of natural disasters (RescEU) (see EUROPE 12159). On 17 December, an agreement was reached in trilogue on the regulation on CO2 standards for new cars and vans (see EUROPE 12162); a draft compromise of the future Presidency on the revision of the directive to encourage public procurement of clean vehicles was also adopted (see EUROPE 12164). On 19 December, a provisional trilogue agreement was reached on the ‘disposable plastics’ directive and the Commission proposed a roadmap to tackle deforestation (see EUROPE 12163); a further provisional trilogue agreement on the regulation harmonising and simplifying the reporting of national administrations on environmental matters, plus agreements at the Council on ‘sustainable finance’ dossiers (see EUROPE 12164), were also signed off. These were followed on 20 December by political agreements of the Council on the regulation on CO2 emissions from new utility vehicles and the priorities of the future LIFE programme post-2020 (see EUROPE 12164).
These positive results of the Austrian Presidency by no means prejudge the future. The citizens are not being sent clear signals. In view of the degree of urgency, they are in more of a hurry than their senior politicians, who are setting the bar too low. As aeroplanes containing the delegations started to converge over Poland on 2 December, more than 70,000 people marched in the rain in the EU capital to express their hopes of not being disappointed by COP24. And we have seen a new phenomenon: citizens taking their nations to court for deficiencies in their climate action.
On 28 November (see EUROPE 12148), the Commission published an EU decarbonisation strategy, which sets out eight different scenarios, but no path to follow: is it, too, divided? As for the ministers of the environment, they will not meet again until 21 May, for an informal meeting in Bucharest, with the only formal Council of the first six months of the year slated for 25 June, three months ahead of the United Nations extraordinary climate summit. None of this looks very much like rallying behind the cause. What will the EU countries that are members of the High Ambition Coalition do?
In May, the European elections will play out on the theme of migration (which has dropped sharply), rather than the temperature of the planet (which is rising uncontrollably) and the ecological debt that is being passed on to future generations, whose fate will depend on decisions that are made in the coming years. 2019 is going to have its work cut out!
Renaud Denuit.