This week we got a sneak peak of how post-Brexit trade talks will go. And it ain’t pretty.
It’s not only the UK parliament that could scupper a Brexit deal. Last-minute demands - from Spain on Gibraltar and from France on fisheries - risk unravelling a hard-won political agreement reached early on Thursday morning (EUROPE 12143).
Germany and the European Commission, backed by European Council president Donald Tusk and the Austrian EU presidency, are trying to keep a lid on the disputes ahead of Sunday’s EU summit.
They fear that reopening either the withdrawal agreement or the draft political declaration now would risk a free-for-all. “There might be declarations, but the legal text is sealed”, said one senior EU diplomat. “Sure, we can open it again, but then we would have to put in Gibraltar”.
Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez has threatened to “veto Brexit” if he doesn’t get a say on Gibraltar. After speaking with Mr Sánchez on Thursday, British prime minister Theresa May said she was “confident” they will agree “a deal that delivers for the whole UK family, including Gibraltar”.
A scheduled May-Juncker meeting on Saturday has thrown more fuel on the fire. Mrs May says the meeting is to “discuss how to bring this process to a conclusion in the interest of all our people”. But EU ambassadors were under the impression that no further changes would be made to the text after Friday morning, when prime ministers’ sherpas meet to sign it off.
The posturing has annoyed German chancellor Angela Merkel, who has not yet officially confirmed her attendance at the summit. But following a meeting of EU ambassadors on Thursday, one source said there was a “rather good feeling about Sunday”.
Minor amendments
According to one senior EU official, there was one minor change made to the withdrawal agreement on Thursday, following the Ms. May ’s meeting with Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.
That was to clarify that any extension to the post-Brexit transition period will be short. Brexiteers continue to insist that it should be a matter of “months not years”.
“It can be anything from months to years,” said one EU official who worked on the text. “But the end date, for sure, is December 2022”.
Everything and nothing
All in all, the political declaration does not go far beyond the European Council’s March guidelines. What’s on the table, at least on the economic side, is a kind of fortified free trade deal.
The text commits to everything and nothing. Free movement will end, but the UK will pay a price in terms of single market access. And while the EU has acknowledged that “technologies” could reduce the need for border checks, officials say in private that the UK will be treated like any other foreign exporter.
“Clearly, there will be no frictionless trade”, said an EU official directly involved in the negotiations. “For goods, you’re just a third country”.
The “spectrum of different outcomes” written into the section on goods has given Theresa May something to sell as a win, and she did: She told British MPs that the EU is no longer offering the UK a “binary choice” between Norway and Canada-style deals.
Unfortunately for May, the withdrawal agreement still includes the controversial “backstop” to keep the Irish border infrastructure-free, though the political declaration contains a “determination to replace” it with “alternative arrangements”.
However, the EU has also insisted that future customs arrangements “build on” any temporary ones that may come into force, either via the backstop or May’s “alternative”. “If you go down this road, it [has to be] a bridge to the future”, one senior EU official told The B-Word.
Deal or no deal
According to analysts at the Eurasia group think-tank, the chances of that deal being rejected by the UK on 11 December have now gone up to 75 percent. The deal is unpopular with Eurosceptic Tories, Labour Remainers, up to 12 Scottish MPs and the Democratic Unionist Party’s 10 Westminster deputies.
However, EU sources who spoke to the Evening Standard were optimistic. As one diplomat put it: “I am not concerned. If I would count how many times May was killed politically, I don’t even have enough fingers and toes”.
And the only alternative, a senior EU official insisted, is no deal. “Nobody wants to negotiate on Sunday”. (Sarah Collins)