Brexit talks are back, after two weeks in suspended animation, with the Irish border the only show in town. But while a deal on a border ‘backstop’ is “very close”, according to EU sources, it’s not yet clear if it will gain support from all sides.
The pieces are beginning to fall into place.
The European Commission has been tinkering with the language in its original ‘backstop’ proposal, and after a series of meetings in Brussels on Thursday, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said: “there is a good opportunity to clinch a deal over the next couple of weeks” (see EUROPE 12110).
Theresa May’s Brexit advisor, Olly Robbins, has been in Brussels all week, a sign that things are moving. And EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier is meeting Northern Irish politicians, including the leaders of Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party, this week and next.
Back in London, sources say the British government is reworking its June proposal for a “temporary customs arrangement”, which would have kept the entire UK inside the customs union until 2023. This was roundly dismissed by the EU, which says the ‘backstop’ should be for Northern Ireland only, and not time-limited.
The new proposal will be an exercise in rebranding as much as a shift in the UK’s position. Theresa May must convince Brexiteers and unionists that her plan will create no new borders within the UK, while reassuring the EU that its own external borders are secure. Negotiators on both sides are now working on how and where to carry out new customs and product checks.
There are already checks on live animal imports to Northern Ireland from Great Britain (the island of Ireland is considered a “single unit” for animal health and welfare), so the question is which additional checks - for example, customs, VAT, or food safety - are needed, and where.
Where the checks take place will depend on whether the UK opts, as rumoured, to stay linked to the bloc’s customs union and allow Northern Ireland to align itself with selected single market rules.
The Democratic Unionist Party has ruled out any “new” checks between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland, and says the Northern Irish government and parliament (which have been out of action since power sharing broke down in 2016) must have a vote on any changes.
The UK continues to hope it will never have to use the ‘backstop’, but given the EU’s rejection of the ‘Chequers’ plan for a free trade area in goods, it is becoming more urgent. European Council president Donald Tusk said yesterday that the EU was offering what he called “not just a Canada deal, but a Canada+++ deal”, which will by its nature mean checks are necessary at the border.
Negotiators in both the EU and UK remain tight-lipped about the detail, and have not yet shared anything on paper with EU diplomats. “At the moment we’re in the eye of the hurricane”, said one diplomat involved in the talks. “Things are going to spin fast”.
EU ambassadors discussed progress Friday, while UK lead negotiator Dominic Raab is expected in Brussels next week. The next EU summit begins on 17 October. (Sarah Collins)