On Monday 19 March, the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom on Brexit, Michel Barnier and David Davis, announced that they have made decisive progress towards an orderly British withdrawal from the EU on 29 March 2019.
The two men, who were meeting in Brussels for the first time in 2018, announced an agreement on the terms of the post-Brexit transitional period. This will run until the end of 2020 and will allow London to prepare to become a third country once again.
Progress has also been noted on the terms of the separation, such as citizens’ rights and the financial question. Concerning Ireland and the governance of the withdrawal agreement, there is still some work to be done, but Barnier said that the bulk has been completed in recent days, with the UK agreeing to the backstop option if no other solution to the Northern Ireland issue was forthcoming.
London has accepted the principle of legally translating this default option, but the contents are still to be discussed. Davis wanted the content of a protocol in the draft withdrawal agreement, which was presented for the first time on 28 February and added to on 19 March, to be set out in terms acceptable to both sides.
On 28 February, the EU made waves in London by suggesting that Northern Ireland could stay in the single market and customs union along with the rest of Ireland, which would create a border in the Irish Sea with the rest of the United Kingdom (see EUROPE 11971).
The content of the protocol needs to be redefined, therefore, but the idea of regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and, therefore, with the EU, at least in certain areas of cooperation, has in any case been approved by the British side.
Davis explained on Monday that his aim was to create such a close future relationship between the EU in London that no specific solution would even be necessary to avoid a return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Discussions on this future relationship and the Irish question are expected to accelerate after 23 March, when the Twenty-Seven formally adopt guidelines on future relations between the EU and the UK.
In any case, Barnier considers that the provisional agreement reached on Monday on the post-Brexit transition period and the confirmation of other points of agreement mean that the lion’s share of the definitive withdrawal agreement has been accepted by both sides.
British concessions over the post-Brexit transitional period
What exact progress has been made on the post-Brexit transitional period?
Firstly, London has agreed that this period will run only to 31 December 2020, or 21 months. This is close to the 24 months London was initially calling for, said Davis (see EUROPE 11868).
During this period, London will have no right of veto on discussions between Europeans, that may be involved in discussions with its observer status.
Citizens’ rights will be by and large the same as those secured on 8 December in the provisional joint report for Europeans arriving in the UK before Brexit (see EUROPE 11922). This means that these European nationals and their families will have the same facilities as European citizens who settled before 29 March 2019, with the only difference being that they will have to apply for permanent resident status within three months. This status will give them the same guarantees as those arriving before 29 March 2019 and is expected to be easier to obtain than the general status available under the future immigration regime in the UK, in other words applicable to all foreign nationals arriving in the UK after Brexit.
On the other hand, European citizens settling in the UK after the end of the post-Brexit transitional period, in early 2021, will no longer have the same rights as their predecessors.
In London, the Brexit minister said that the country could negotiate and even sign free-trade deals with other countries during this transitional period, but these will not be able to enter into force without the authorisation of the EU, a European source explained.
During this period, Barnier also suggested, London and EU could allow their new security and defence partnership to enter into force, if it is ready before the end of the transition.
And up to the end of 2020, a joint committee, as called for by London, will be responsible for resolving all manner of disputes that may arise between the two sides, either of which will be able to refer issues to it.
Barnier said that the agreement reached at the eighth negotiating session is undeniably a decisive stage, he said, signifying that most of the work towards the orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom has now been done.
London must however bear in mind the fact that nothing is agreed unless everything is agreed, the EU negotiator warned, and the Irish question and the general governance of the agreement are potentially loaded issues. On governance, and the involvement of the Court of Justice of the EU in particular, this has been resolved only for the citizens, he explained. Matters such as the protection of personal data have made similarly low levels of progress.
A positive but cautious welcome in Parliament
The European Parliament’s steering group on Brexit welcomed the political agreement, in principle, on a transition period, but stresses that it has entered a scrutiny reservation. Like the European Council, the European Parliament will decide independently whether the final withdrawal agreement negotiated is acceptable or not, it warned.
The representatives in Parliament welcome the confirmation that EU citizens settling in the United Kingdom will enjoy the same rights as those who arrived before the beginning of the transition period to follow Brexit. They add that they welcome the fact the UK has confirmed that the default solution to avoid a return to a hard border in Ireland, as proposed by the Commission, will be included in the final withdrawal agreement.
Parliament also welcomes the fact that the EU has deleted article 32, which limits the right of British citizens to continue to move freely within the EU27. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)