The EU may “always regret” Brexit, as Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker lamented in his State of the Union speech this week (see EUROPE 11861), but it is determined to get over it.
The European Commission has begun churning out a spate of legislative proposals on everything from trade to political party funding, intent on getting back to business after a summer of Brexit discontent. Mr Juncker’s annual set-piece State of the Union speech this week marked a deliberate attempt to push Brexit further down the EU’s priority list.
The UK’s decision to leave the EU got two mentions during the speech, right at the end: The first, an emotional but short reference to the “sad and tragic moment” in March 2019 when the UK will officially quit the bloc, which Mr Juncker said the EU “will always regret”; with an unscripted aside to Ukip’s Nigel Farage, looking on, to say the UK “will regret this soon”.
But it was his second reference to Brexit that encapsulates the EU’s current mood, more than a year after the UK’s June 2016 vote to leave (see EUROPE 11580). “We will move on because Brexit isn’t everything. It isn’t the future of Europe. It isn’t the be all and end all.”
Like a jilted lover on the mend, the EU’s lust for life is slowly returning, and the bloc is giving itself a post-break-up make-over to go with it. Brexit may even make it easier to achieve some of the long-held desires of EU federalists, from eurozone integration to tax harmonisation to stronger defence ties. And Mr Juncker has even proposed holding a symbolic EU summit the day after Brexit day in the ancient Romanian city of Sibiu.
Ms May to speak in Florence
Meanwhile, across the Channel, speculation is rife about what UK premier Theresa May will announce in her anticipated Brexit speech, due to take place in Florence on 22 September. A fourth round of Brexit talks, due to begin the week of 18 September, has been delayed by a week to make room for the speech, which many expect will lay out her plans for how to transition from a full EU member to third country.
The question of a transition period has now become central to the Brexit talks. Not only will it set the scene for a future trade deal, but it is also being touted as a way to sell an ambitious financial settlement to hardline Brexiteers in the UK; if the UK can continue to enjoy the benefits of the single market and customs union for a few years after quitting, it may be easier for the government to agree on an EU exit bill.
UK chancellor Philip Hammond told a House of Lords committee this week that the government wanted a Brexit transition deal that would look “a lot like the status quo”, and that the port of Dover was unprepared to start imposing customs checks from March 2019 in the event of no deal or a hard exit, indicating his softer stance has been all but accepted inside the cabinet.
But it will take more than a speech to build the “trust” that EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier says is needed to kick Brexit talks into gear, while the red lines that divide the two sides - money and the role of the European Court of Justice - remain. (Sarah Collins)