Short-lived. I don't think that the voluntary Union exit clause (which will figure in the new European treaty) will be used by Poland. Neither do I think that this country will resort to overusing derogations to this or than Community standard. I consider, on the contrary, that Poland will do its best to participate in all the future progress of European construction if the EU follows the path of a “two-speed Europe” or multiplies “strengthened cooperation”. I believe that the attitude of the current Polish government to European integration will be short-lived and that it is not the fundamental orientation of the country.
Political figures and commentators who mention Poland in the context of the voluntary exit clause confuse, in my opinion, the attitude of certain political leaders with the fundamental attitude of the people. During the last summit, the Kaczynski twins, one as a negotiator in Brussels and the other giving orders from Warsaw, behaved in a way that was incompatible with the European spirit and which sometimes bordered on the reprehensible. To criticise the Germany of today for the victims of the Second World War, when the very essence of the European adventure its to put an end to past conflicts and bitterness, goes in the opposite direction of the efforts that have been made over the last half century. However, at the same time, we learn that the Polish people are largely in favour of a United Europe and that the rural population has clearly understood the significance of the European agricultural policy (despite some of the anomalies and shortcomings of the CAP) by giving it their massive and enthusiastic support. At the same time, top-ranking Polish figures have distanced themselves from the attitude of the current government. These include Bronislaw Geremek and former Solidarnosc members (with a few slips made by Mr Saryusz-Wolski).
Public opinion still needs to evolve. The Polish public certainly has to better understand that a member state cannot impose its views and orientations on Europe as a whole. Poland has the right to its opinions on divorce and abortion and mention references to God and “Christian roots” in European texts but it cannot claim that the whole of Europe agrees with it. Contrary to what some observers have affirmed, the European Council had clearly decided to insert a reference in the preamble to the revised EU treaty that highlighted the “cultural, religious and humanist heritage of Europe”, upon which (the text explains) the universal values that now represent humanity's heritage are based. I believe that the Poles are increasingly understanding what participating in Europe means, including the meaning of solidarity and that if the Kaczynski twins are intending to continue to play a national political role, they must adapt to pro-European evolution in their country, which after a difficult period, is again asserting itself.
An unjustifiable and rather useless battle. I do not believe the specific question that for a long time poisoned the atmosphere at the last summit and which was resolved by a complicated and rather painful compromise is as important as some member states and political forces make out. I observed a certain confusion between the move to majority voting in a number of fields, as well as in the voting procedures. The deadlines and provisions cobbled together to obtain the “yes” vote from Poland only involved the second aspect. They do not influence the extension of majority voting and Parliament-Council codecision in the slightest, which will apply on the day the new treaty enters into force in early 2009. This is what is essential. The voting modalities, the transition to the double majority system represents democratic progress, in harmony with the principle that the EU is a union of States and peoples. The Treaty of Nice formula was defined unsatisfactorily but it is normal that the two member states it benefits (Spain and Poland) tried to maintain or obtain compromises. Poland, however, went too far in defending its capacity to block decisions and reduce Germany's weight.
In reality, the experience of how Europe works institutionally proves that these battles don't mean very much because all the big countries will never be on one side and the small countries on the other. Majorities are always mixed, according to the points in discussion. The weight of a country does not only depend on the number of votes but rather and above all, on the respect its representatives can win, as well as their contribution to the debates and compromises. From this point of view, the Polish twins have certainly not increased the weight of their country, even if they can for a few years keep the number of votes included in the Treaty of Nice.
(F.R.)