Brussels, 10/09/2004 (Agence Europe) - The External Relations Council on Monday, chaired by Bernard Bot, will be a remake of the Gymnich-style meeting of EU foreign ministers in Valkenburg last weekend, with virtually the same issues on the agenda - ASEM, Iran, Sudan (Darfur), Iraq, the Great Lakes region, Serbia and Montenegro and Byelorussia. The ministers will also hold a short 'General Affairs' meeting to focus on the upcoming Financial Perspectives (see article on page 9).
ASEM. The Council is expected to adopt conclusions to formalise the agreement reached at the Gymnich meeting on the upcoming ASEM meeting in Hanoi on 8 October. According to the compromise struck at Valkenburg, Burma can be represented at the EU-ASEM summit but not as high as head of state level. Moreover, if the system in Burma fails by 8 October to meet the three demands made by the EU at the previous Gymnich summit in Tullamore (including the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the holding of a national convention attended by the National League for Democracy), the EU will not only maintain its sanctions against the military junta but will increase them (see Europe of 7 September, p.5). In parallel, support measures for the Burmese people will be stepped up. In their conclusions, the ministers will instruct the Commission to prepare new measures (in the form of a revised common position). One question mark remains - France (which was not represented by its foreign minister in Valkenburg), apparently with the support of Spain and Portugal, wants clarifications of the Gymnich compromise. Some commentators are speaking of 'real objections' made by France to the plans to step up restrictions on new investment in Burma (the French oil company Total, for example, is the leading oil and gas investor in Burma). On Friday, the Dutch Presidency was confident that the conclusions would be adopted on Monday as planned.
Sudan (Darfur). Following debate at Valkenburg, ministers will adopt conclusions in the light of the report by the UN Special Representative Jan Pronk. The draft conclusions stipulate that the EU is extremely concerned at the situation in Darfur. The conclusions will confirm what Bot said after the Valkenburg meeting (see Europe of 7 September, p.4), namely that the EU has not ruled out sanctions against the Sudanese government if there is no rapid and tangible progress in implementing UN Security Council Regulation 1556. The EU25 will also reaffirm their willingness to increase aid to the African Union's observer mission in Darfur by sending experts and police officials, for example.
Iraq. Following debate at Valkenburg, the ministers will adopt conclusions setting out the EU's next steps to help the interim government, viz. extending political dialogue with the interim government and holding a meeting between the EU Troika and Iraqi government representatives later this month on the fringes of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York; and further consideration of the EU' exploratory mission's suggestions (following its return to Baghdad last week) of aid for the Iraqi government, namely helping with civilian crisis management, training police officers, helping develop the rule of law and an effective public administration. On Monday, the Council is expected to invite the Council and the Commission Secretariat Generals to prepare a package of concrete aid proposals for the 5 November European Council. Ministers on Monday are also expected to confirm that Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi will be attending the November European Council meeting. The Council on Monday will express support for the idea of the EU making a 'substantial contribution' to funding for the bodyguards of the UN agents in Baghdad. This poses legal problems (the Treaty does not allow for exclusively military spending of this type) but the Commission is in the process of seeing how the EU could fund non-military expenditure for the UN's protection force.
Iran. Nuclear issues will again be on the agenda. The IAEA will be meeting on the same day (13 September) in Vienna to look at a report by El-Baradei on Iran. The Council is expected to call on the Iranian authorities again to fully cooperate with the IAEA.
Great Lakes region. It was initially planned that ministers would look at the situation in the Great Lakes region of Africa over lunch, but Belgium wants the matter to be discussed in
formal session, followed by the adoption of conclusions. On Friday, the Dutch Presidency had still not decided how it would proceed on Monday.
Belarus. At a request by Latvia, the Council is to hold an exchange of views on the situation in Belarus, mainly on President Alexandre Loukachenko's announced intention to organise, on 17 October, a referendum with a view to seeking a third mandate - which the Constitution currently prevents him from doing. The Council is expected to adopt conclusions in which it regrets such a "bogus" referendum is being held in contrast to the rule of law. On the Commission's side, it is not to be ruled out that the EU could go beyond this by taking sanctions against the Loukachenko regime, for example on visas and the freezing of assets. The United States also expressed serious about the announced referendum's legality.
Serbia-Montenegro. Under "miscellaneous", and at Hungary's request, the Council will also tackle the situation of the Hungarian minority in the Serb province of Voivodina.
On Tuesday (14 September) Cooperation Councils will be held with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. During the afternoon, a meeting of the Stabilisation and Association Council is foreseen with the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM).