Brussels, 16/06/2004 (Agence Europe) - "Turkey's EU's end game?": the association Friends of Europe is to hold a day of debates in Brussels this Thursday, to be attended by the Turkish Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gül, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Günter Verheugen, and the Irish Minister for European Affairs, Dick Roche. Ahead of this occasion, Friends of Europe has published a working document on the impact of Turkey joining the EU, which concludes that this would not be so very different from other waves of enlargement. This accession "will have significant impacts on the Union, but these impacts can be managed as those of previous enlargements have been", concludes the report, which was written by Kirsty Hughes, Fellow of the London School of Economics. "Consequently, Turkey's candidacy should be judged on the same terms as that of other candidates) through adoption of the acquis and through meeting the Copenhagen criteria".
"Turkey is a large country in population terms, and a small one in economic terms". By 2025, it will be the most populous Member State- taking over from Germany, which currently has a slightly larger population, but their populations are likely to be the same by about 2015. On the other hand, Turkey currently represents just 1.99% of the GDP of the Twenty-Five (2002 figures), and its GDP will still be just 2.9% in 2015. Kirsty Hughes believes that due to the "small size" of its economic, Turkey's accession could have "a very small but positive impact on EU25 GDP of 0.1-0.3%", which could increase if there are new migration flows of Turks to other Member States, just as the EU "is beginning to feel the negative impacts of its ageing demographic profile".
"As a large poor country, Turkey will be eligible for significant budget transfers from the Union", she acknowledges, estimating the Turkish contribution to the Community budget at a total of 45.5 billion EUR for the first three years, bringing the figure to a net transfer of 30 to 35 billion EUR. Here again, the report makes a connection to the enlargement to central and eastern Europe. "Per head of population, this budgetary package is almost identical to that of the ten new Member States", says Kirsty Hughes. Accession could help Turkey to increase foreign direct investments, which are currently quite low, to reach 2 to 4 billion EUR a year.
"There is a risk that Turkey as a Member State could resemble the UK and be a rather awkward player- but it is more likely than the UK to understand the political nature of the Union", says the report. The report judges that Turkey's accession would be politically important, not only to stabilise this large Muslim and secular country, and to show that the EU is not a "Christian club", but also for shaping the EU's external policy. Kirsty Hughes considers that Turkey will not be so much a bridge to the Middle East as an important player among the large Member States, wanting to increase the EU's role on the world stage.
This autumn, the European Commission is to submit a report in which it will evaluate Turkey's progress, and take position on the opening of accession negotiations. The final decision will be taken by the Heads of State and Government, who will pronounce in December. At the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002, the EU committed to open negotiations without delay at the end of 2004, if Turkey came into line with the so-called Copenhagen criteria Once negotiations are open, they are likely to take 10 to 15 years.
The Friends of Europe working document stresses that "since 1999, and especially since the AKP government was elected in November 2002, there has been a radical and swift political reform in Turkey". The document refers to democratisation, minority rights, the reduced role of the army, and observes the considerable influence of Turkey's European objectives in these fields. The report states, however, that "reforms are incomplete", and that much progress remains for Turkey to obtain a positive response next December.