Brussels, 29/10/2003 (Agence Europe) - Commenting on the European Commission's economic forecasts for the acceding countries, Commissioner Pedro Solbes told the press on Wednesday that he welcomed the economic performances of these countries, as regards growth (to reach 3.1% in 2003, 3.8% in 2004 then 4.2% in 2005), and inflation (which fell considerably in 2002). However, he acknowledged that the situation is unsatisfactory from the point of view of state deficit as this year, six of the future Member States (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Cyprus and Malta) could register deficits above 3% of GDP.
"There are very clear positive elements, such as growth, which is good, and inflation, which has done well. But the situation is less good from the point of view of state deficits, as there have been slips in certain countries which we find worrying. Greater care must be taken as of 1 May, in countries which are struggling from a state deficit point of view", explained Mr Solbes, in answer to a journalist who asked him whether the Commission was satisfied with these countries' convergence results. Mr Solbes also cited unemployment, estimated at 15% in 2005, as a cause for concern.
Mr Solbes also confirmed that in theory, none of the candidate countries will be in a position to enter the euro zone before 2006, given that they must first join the European exchange mechanism for two years. Even leaving aside this technicality, "I do not think any of the countries will be able to fulfil the other conditions", especially due to the public deficits, he added. He mentioned the case of the Czech Republic (deficit of 8.0% of GDP in 2003, 6.3% in 2004 and 5.2% in 2005), Hungary (5.4% in 2003, 4.4% in 2004 and 3.6% in 2005) and Poland (4.3% in 2003, 5.9% in 2004 and 4.9% in 2005). "Even if progress is made in inflation, there are still major differences between countries", added Commissioner Solbes.