Brussels, 18/10/2001 (Agence Europe) - In its economic impact assessment report of measures taken by the EU following the 11 September attacks, to be presented to the Heads of State and Government in Ghent on Friday, the Commission considers that the conditions for a resumption in growth (estimated at 1.5% in 2001) in 2002 are there "on condition that the political situation does not worsen further". The report also states that, next year, there will probably be a margin of manoeuvre regarding monetary policy and recommends that the European Investment Bank (EIB) contribute to the stabilisation of long-term investments, including in sectors very much affected by the economic slowdown, by granting more loans.
Thanks to the economic fundamentals, regarded as solid, the Commission counts on a "possible" beginning of a resumption of European growth in the second half of 2002. It stresses that the public finances situation of Member States "allows for a certain amount of flexibility", that the balance of payments in currently in balance and that over-investment in information and communications technologies, less dire than in the United States, has limited reversals of fortunes in Europe. In addition, macroeconomic stability has allowed for a rapid decline in inflation that should continue in 2002. The report places emphasis on the importance of finding a "balanced dosage" between budgetary and monetary policies. It stresses that the ECB could be brought to lower its rates "if inflation continues to slow down and if wage increases remain moderate". Regarding budgetary policy, the Commission says it expects the situation in the fifteen countries of the Union and the twelve members of the euro zone will not to be as good as initially forecast. According to the latest estimates, "the balance of public administrations, for 2001, amounts to -1% of GDP in the euro zone, and -0.5% of GDP in the EU as a whole, situated at -0.4/0.3% in relation to the level of GDP targeted in the stability and convergence programmes, updated last year". The budgetary implications of the economic slowdown will also be felt in 2002, the Commission believes, adding that the economic stabilisers will be reactivated taking account of the level in each country.
The report urges the European Council to reiterate its commitment to implementing the Lisbon Strategy, respecting the timetable provided for. The Commission writes that the Heads of State and Government should urge the Council of Ministers to secure, before the European Council of Barcelona (in the Spring of 2002), a final agreement on the following issues: - "telecommunications" package; - Community patent; - UCITS Directive; - rules on cross-border payments; - the agreement on market abuse. A political agreement should also be concluded before Barcelona on the "single European sky" package, the pension funds directive, the new framework for the Trans-European Networks and proposals relating to the "public procurement" package. The EIB, which has an important role to play in supporting the Lisbon Strategy, is called upon to "intensify its actions to back efforts made by the EU to support economic activity in Europe". The Commission suggests that the EIB intensify implementation of infrastructure projects and that it retain a "proactive" attitude in granting loans to sectors particularly affected by the unfavourable conditions (telecommunications, air transport).
Precisely regarding these sectors which are experiencing specific difficulties, the Commission considers that recent events "may not serve as pretext to undertake, at national level, actions that may be harmful to the competitiveness of the Union or its industry". Notably, in the airline sector, "there is no question of challenging the principle by which the last series of aid has been granted to the sector", we read in the report.
Worth noting that the report also places emphasis on the importance of forging an alliance not only against terrorism (notably by tightening the rules on money laundering, as well as on asylum), but also in favour of development policy: "in-depth reflection must begin (…) in view of strengthening governance at world level with the aim of guaranteeing sustainable development and promoting dialogue between civilisations.