Brussels, 13/07/2001 (Agence Europe) - The European Commission unveiled, on Wednesday, the results of the latest projections for agriculture in EU 2001-2008, which provides avenues for thought for the mid-way reassessment (which will begin in June 2002 with the publication of an assessment report) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Reforms are proving necessary especially for two sectors, beef and rye. On the other hand, the Commission should propose the status quo for the aid system to oleaginous plants (which could also benefit from the development of biofuels) and for milk, for which the main changes foreseen in the 1999 reform will only produce effects in 2005/2006. According to Community sources, it seems premature to launch a in-depth debate on the system of milk quotas, which would no longer be brought into question before 2008.
The beef surplus, estimated at between 250,000 and 730,000 tonnes per year, and which have little chance of finding outlets without export refunds, should incite the services of Commissioner Fischler to propose next year more significant changes that those from the seven point plan adopted during the last Agriculture Council (see EUROPE of 21 June, p.13). The system of granting subsidies could in the future be further decoupled from production. As for rye (problem of structural surpluses mainly German), the report foresees a significant imbalance in the market, with stocks that will increase from 3.8 million tonnes in 1999/2000 to 13.8 million tonnes in 2008/2009, of which 13 million tonnes of intervention stocks. Corrections could be brought to the intervention system, either by reducing the prices, or by no longer making the crop eligible for intervention.
The market projections may be summarised as follows: - bovine meat: the surpluses would be smaller that initially foreseen (stabilisation around 250,000 tonnes per year after a "peak" of 730,000 tonnes in 2003), notably thanks to a rapid improvement of consumption, to the special purchase scheme (which should cover 350,000 tonnes), to the British system for the destruction of bovines above 30 months pushed back to 2002, and the impact of foot and mouth. The Community consumption should fall 5% in 2001 compared to 2000 (-10% compared to 1999) then return in the following years; - pork and poultry: the foot and mouth outbreak should lead to an 8% fall in production in 2001 and a significant increase in imports thanks the better access to the markets in third countries and to concessions granted to the countries from Central and Eastern Europe (increase in quotas according to the "double zero" agreement); - cereals: relatively favourable development (except for rye), with balanced markets and stock within reasonable limits. Increased competitiveness in Community production both on the internal and external level, a recovery in the world market and a favourable exchange rate between the Euro and the Dollar should contribute to the balance of the EU cereal market (stability of stocks around 38 million tonnes per year over the 2000-2008 period); - oleaginous: the potential production remains strong in the medium-term, helped by a gradual recovery in world prices and a favourable exchange rate. Global demand should slightly increase; - protein crops: after a short-term fall, the surface are will steady at 1.3 million hectares thanks to a favourable price trend; - milk: a stabilisation is foreseen for deliveries of milk at 114.4 million tonnes as of 2001/2002, after a fall recorded in 2000/2001 due to a fall in prices on the British market.