Brussels, 23/04/2001 (Agence Europe) - Informal talks on climate change held in New York between some forty countries, on Saturday on the fringe of the United Nations Commission for Sustainable Development (see EUROPE of 19 April, p.7) did not make any decisive progress. The uncertainty over ratification of the Kyoto Protocol since the United States' decision to turn its back on this binding instrument, signed in 1997 by all the industrialised countries of the world as a pledge that they would reduce by 5.2% the total emissions of greenhouse gases by 2008-2012 (compared to the level reached in 1990), remains in place. Out of the 40 countries that answered the invitation launched by Jan Pronk, Environment Minister of the Netherlands and president of the international negotiations on climate, fifteen countries were represented by their environment ministers.
The Americans, represented by Kenneth Brill, a senior official (instead of Christine Todd Whitman, Director of the US Environment Protection Agency), confirmed their intention to take part in the Bonn session of negotiations (COP 6, 16-29 July) where international negotiations suspended in The Hague last November will be resumed. They also confirmed, however, their opposition to the Kyoto Protocol "under any circumstances" according to the term used by the State Department in a diplomatic missive dated 1 April, intercepted by the press. Without wishing to be closely involved in these negotiations, the United States plans on this occasion to present the results of a study on the alternative solutions to the measures set out in the Protocol recommendations, which will allow the US not to worsen its internal energy crisis.
According to Jan Pronk, the consultations confirmed the regrouping of the different countries into three camps:
- Those supporting a rapid conclusion to negotiations on the arrangements for implementation the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol during the next formal session of negotiations (COP 6, Bonn, 16-29 July) in order to allow it to be ratified and brought into force as soon as possible.
These countries include the European Union, which clearly confirmed its intention to ratify the Protocol in 2002 during the Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg - preferably with the Americans but also without them. It invited the other parties to follow suit. Japan (8.5% of emissions) and Russia (17.4% of emissions), which largely decried the about-turn taken by the United States (see EUROPE of 12 April, p.10), also officially rank among those defending the Protocol. Behind the scenes, however, they insisted on the difficulties posed to them by ratification of the Treaty without the participation of the Americans. Japan's fears at seeing its industry lose competitiveness compared to US companies, and Russia's concerns about the price of stock exchange transactions for rights to pollute in the absence of the Americans, are detrimental to the Union's chances of gaining the alliances needed to ensure ratification of the Kyoto protocol. This is due to the fact that, for the protocol to enter into force, it must be ratified by 55 countries contributing to 55% of total greenhouse gas emissions.
- The sceptics, including many developing countries in the group of 77, which have doubts about the effectiveness of an international agreement from which the United States is excluded as the US is the country that, more than all the others, is responsible for global warming (4% of the world population, but 25% of total emissions).
- Countries like Canada (3.3% of emissions) and Australia (2.1% of emissions) which have not concealed the fact that they would avoid all confrontation with the United States over climate issues.
"The family has not split up. The risk of a divorce cannot be discarded, but nobody has as yet left home. The claim by which Kyoto is be dead has not been renewed", declared Jan Pronk, wanting to remain optimistic, although fully aware that these uncertainties foreshadowed "extremely difficult talks". "Whence the interest of organising further ministerial consultations in Stockholm in June, to prepare COP6", thereby increasing the chances of making a success of it.
The results of the consultations in New York may therefore be summarized by an agreement by the parties to continue work over the next three months.
In as press release summarizing the conclusions that it drew from the meeting, the European Troika, represented by Kjell Larsson, Swedish Environment Minister and President-in-Office of the Council, Margot Wallstrom, European Commissioner for the Environment, Olivier Deleuze, Belgian State Secretary for Energy and Sustainable Development, call on all parties to show flexibility in seeking an agreement in the months to come and recall that: a) implementation of the UN Framework-Convention on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol demand that developing countries be provided with substantial resources; - b) the Union's fears regarding the accounting of carbon sinks in achieving the goals (especially in the first period of engagement), motivated by uncertainties and risks linked to this mechanism, have in part been lifted by the new proposal of Jan Pronk which seems to it to provide greater certainties on volumes that would be taken into account; c) there is no alternative to the Kyoto Protocol. It implementation must lead to a significant and true reduction in emissions from industrialised countries, even if the Union is prepared, in the framework of the global package, to show flexibility concerning the place of national actions compared to the use of flexible mechanisms; d) the EU can support any suggestion that would be made concerning the consequences of non-respect of the aims assigned to various countries; e) the EU feels that the Goteborg European Council and the EU/United States Summit in June will be of crucial importance in the development of the dossier.