The consequences of the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on Saturday 28 February and Tehran’s retaliation (see other news) were immediately apparent on the European and international energy markets on Monday 2 March.
The main reason is the disruption, since 28 February, of the flow of oil and gas from the Middle East through the world’s most important energy gateway, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for a fifth of the world’s oil consumption (20 million barrels a day).
In addition, Qatar’s State-owned energy company QatarEnergy announced earlier in the day that it was suspending its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following Iranian attacks on its gas processing facilities. Together with the United Arab Emirates, Qatari exports account for around 20% of global LNG trade.
Possible price hikes. For gas, the Dutch TTF futures contract, the European benchmark, rose by more than 50% on Monday to almost €49 per megawatt-hour.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for oil, flirted with the $80 mark.
While Europe is much less dependent on Gulf oil and LNG than Asia, it is not immune to the ups and downs of oil and gas prices, as the Bruegel think tank points out.
“Oil and LNG are global markets: any blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger immediate price spikes that would hit Europe regardless of its limited physical imports”, writes researcher Simone Tagliapietra.
Furthermore, if oil and gas prices rise simultaneously, substitution will be more difficult, “potentially triggering renewed coal demand and pressure for demand-side savings”, he pointed out.
LNG: Europe’s greatest vulnerability. According to Bruegel, Europe’s greatest vulnerability is LNG, because a tightening of supply would force Europe to compete with Asian buyers for flexible cargoes on the spot market - as was seen during the energy crisis of 2021-2023.
This would inevitably push up gas prices in Europe, especially as the continent began 2026 with lower gas storage levels than in recent years.
A spokeswoman for the European Commission sought to reassure: “Our EU underground gas stocks are currently around 30% full, which is within the limits set by the EU to ensure adequate levels at the end of winter and to ensure replenishment over the coming summer”. The heating season ends on 31 March.
At this stage, however, the Commission considers that there is no immediate risk to the EU’s security of energy supply. It has asked the Member States to submit their national assessments and has convened a coordination group on oil.
Energy was also one of the topics discussed by the European Commission’s College of Security, which also announced that it would be holding a working group on energy with the Member States and the International Energy Agency this week. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)