On Saturday 14 February, the foreign ministers of France, Canada, Italy, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, together with the High Representative of the European Union, reaffirmed “their unwavering support for Ukraine in the defence of its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
The day before, European leaders meeting in Munich had welcomed all efforts to achieve a lasting peace, according to the President of the European Council, António Costa.
“I don’t think there is a single person here who is opposed to a negotiated settlement, provided the conditions are fair and sustainable. That’s our goal, and we’re going to keep working to achieve it”, promised US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his visit to Munich.
An agreement as much awaited as feared. In her speech in Munich, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, warned against an unfair peace agreement. “The greatest threat posed by Russia at the moment is that it gets more at the negotiating table than on the battlefield”, she said, adding that since the start of the war, Russia had, at the cost of 1.2 million casualties, “barely progressed beyond the lines of 2014”.
According to Mr Rubio, Russia will not be able to achieve the initial objectives it set itself at the start of the conflict, but that “it all comes down to its desire for 20% of the territory of Donetsk that it does not currently possess”. In January, according to Ukrainian, 30,000 Russians were killed or injured.
“Russia’s maximalist demands (at the negotiating table) cannot be met by a minimalist response”, warned the EU High Representative.
“We don’t know whether the Russians are sincere about ending the war; they say they are - and we don’t know on what conditions they are prepared to do so and whether we can find conditions that are acceptable to Ukraine and that Russia will systematically accept”, admitted Marco Rubio. He added that: “What we cannot answer - but will continue to explore - is whether there is an acceptable solution for Ukraine and Russia. So far, this remains out of reach”. According to the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, “sometimes you get the impression that the two sides are talking about completely different things”.
Pointing out that while negotiations were continuing, sanctions still applied to Russia and military equipment was still being sent to Ukraine, Mr Rubio said that there was “no time to be saved on this issue”.
Sanctioning the Russian ‘shadow fleet’. With EU Member States currently negotiating the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky has called for measures against the ‘shadow fleet’ to be stepped up.
“Russian oil tankers are still moving freely along the coasts of Europe, in the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the Mediterranean. In total, Russia is still using over a thousand tankers. Each of them is, in reality, a veritable financial windfall for the Kremlin”, explained the President, calling for a review of European legislation so that Russian oil tankers can not only be boarded, but also blocked, and their oil confiscated.
According to the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, some of the G7 countries are in favour of a total ban on maritime services for Russian crude oil, as proposed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for the 20th package (see EUROPE 13803/1).
Ukraine needs an EU accession date. Volodymyr Zelensky also felt that his country “needed a date” for joining the EU, and that Ukraine and its institutions should be “technically ready” for accession in 2027. 2027 is the date mentioned in the American plan, a date apparently decided without prior consultation with the EU.
“The date of accession depends on all these discussions with our partners, but - and I mean no disrespect to either the United States or Europe - we need a date, because otherwise Russia will try to block us, directly or perhaps through other countries”, warned Mr Zelensky. Hungary is currently blocking the official opening of ‘clusters’ of accession negotiation chapters. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)