The Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the EU begins its mandate with an informal Justice and Home Affairs ministerial meeting in Nicosia on Thursday 22 and Friday 23 January. Cyprus, which has placed the entry into force of the ‘Pact on Migration and Asylum’ at the heart of its political priorities (see EUROPE 13782/12), will lead the debates around three key issues: the effective management of the return of irregular migrants, the stabilisation of regions of origin to combat irregular flows and the protection of the Schengen area.
Returns. In 2024, more than 450,000 third-country nationals received an order to leave European territory, but around 110,000 were actually expelled, representing a “rate of return of around 25%”, according to a preparatory note that Agence Europe was able to consult. The situation is identical in the first half of 2025, with some 355,000 return decisions for around 81,000 actual returns. For the Cyprus Presidency, this gap “undermines public confidence in migration governance”, and explains the slow progress in finalising the new Return Regulation, approved by the EU Council last December.
Syria and Afghanistan. According to documents obtained by Agence Europe, Cyprus wants to propose a “holistic approach” combining diplomacy and economic recovery, with a “division of labour” between Member States. Some would focus on diplomatic dialogue, others on capacity building or reconstruction in Syria. Following the change of government in Syria, more than 1.2 million people returned to their country last year, particularly from Turkey and Lebanon. As far as the EU is concerned, the number of Syrians expelled is “rapidly increasing”, even though only 6,000 of the 16,000 decisions issued have actually been implemented, i.e. an actual rate of 38%.
Concerning Afghanistan, the challenge seems insoluble. Despite growing pressure from Iran and Pakistan, which are expelling Afghan nationals on a massive scale (2.8 million in 2025, according to the UN), actual returns remain virtually non-existent. Some 570,000 Afghans hold a valid residence permit in the EU, while over 60,000 are in an irregular situation. In 2024, 23,000 return decisions were issued, but only 440 Afghans were actually returned and just 115 of them to Afghanistan. The lack of documentation for migrants remains the major obstacle on this issue.
Reintegration of migrants. The Cyprus Presidency is also calling for returns and reintegration “not be treated as isolated or purely enforcement-driven processes”, but as part of broader local development efforts. The Frontex agency and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) already fund such programmes, offering housing, employment and legal assistance, but their coverage is fragmented. Cyprus’ ambition is to embed them in the national development strategies of the countries of origin.
Inter-EU migration. Finally, with regard to the Schengen area, Nicosia diagnoses a growing threat from “secondary movements”, i.e. people who move between Member States after their arrival. One of the preparatory notes deplores the fact that the current situation is “fragmented and merely based on proxy indicators”, but the implementation of the Eurodac Regulation on 12 June should improve monitoring by refining the recording of biometric data. During the meetings, the Cyprus Presidency will present its national security measures, but is also expected to ask the ministers what compensation mechanisms have worked in their countries. It also urges the avoidance of unilateral measures that “undermine trust” between members of the Schengen area. (Original version in French by Justine Manaud)