A week ahead of the European Commission’s publication of its ‘roadmap’ for ending Russian fossil fuel imports (see EUROPE 13628/1), the think-tank Strategic Perspectives has estimated that the EU would be able to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, without becoming overly dependent on US liquefied natural gas (LNG).
On Monday 28 April, the think-tank published an interactive tool, ‘EU Gas Insight’ exploring different scenarios for reducing gas demand, demonstrating in particular that the objective of a general phase-out of natural gas can be achieved as the energy transition progresses.
Aymeric Kouam, an analyst with Strategic Perspectives, is calling for “a focus on renewable energy capacity, electrification of the economy and a more integrated energy system”.
Regarding the Commission’s desire to source more American LNG to replace Russian gas (see EUROPE 13627/1), Executive Director Linda Kalcher described it as a “geopolitical gamble that will worsen the EU’s energy security”.
More broadly, Strategic Perspectives deplores the fact that “the EU lacks a clear trajectory for gas decline”, and states that “there is no need for new long-term contracts to be signed, nor for any current contracts to run beyond 2030”.
According to its “visionary scenario”, the think-tank shows that gas supply from domestic production, pipelines and long-term LNG contracts should exceed demand by 54% by 2030, compared with 43% according to the Commission’s trajectory.
To see the ‘EU Gas Insight’ tool, go to https://aeur.eu/f/gkr (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)