In its report published on Wednesday 16 April on the wholesale gas markets in Europe during the 2024-2025 winter season, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) highlights greater pressure on the markets due to higher demand and lower supply last winter.
As a result, wholesale prices have risen by 50% compared with winter 2023/2024, albeit with fewer regional price variations.
As recently highlighted by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) (see EUROPE 13620/6), EU gas storage levels were at 34% of capacity at the end of winter on 1 April 2025, well below 2023-2024 levels. Consumption was in fact higher this winter, due to colder temperatures and exceptionally low wind generation.
ACER also mentions the cessation of Russian gas flows via Ukraine (see EUROPE 13565/5). However, it acknowledges that congestion on the gas networks has been avoided thanks to “full stocks at the start of the winter, the extension of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure and gas consumption that remains structurally below pre-crisis levels”.
The report estimates that, in order to achieve a fill rate of 90% by next winter, pipeline flows will have to remain high and LNG imports will have to increase by 20% compared with the summer of 2024.
According to the Agency, forward prices at the beginning of April 2025 indicate that these imports will arrive at slightly higher costs than in previous years, due to the tightening of the global LNG market. Germany will require the largest number of injections, followed by the Netherlands, Italy and France.
In addition, the report notes that discussions are underway at the level of the Council of the EU and the European Parliament to extend and review with greater flexibility the amended EU Gas Storage Regulation 2022, which currently sets a 90% fill rate by 1 November (see EUROPE 13620/5, 13621/11).
To see the report: https://aeur.eu/f/ggs (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)