Ukraine. On this third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ministers will, as usual, discuss the situation in Ukraine, in particular with their Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, by videoconference.
While discussions between the Americans and Russians have begun, the European Council should first focus on the requirement that nothing is to be decided on Ukraine without Ukraine and without Europe’s involvement. This position will be defended in Washington on Monday by French President Emmanuel Macron, and of course in Kyiv by the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission.
The Ministers are also expected to discuss the reinforcement of support for Kyiv, in particular military support. “In the light of developments in the United States, the EU must provide greater military support to Ukraine. It must go beyond the €20 billion we provided last year”, explained a senior European diplomat.
The European External Action Service (EEAS) has presented Member States with a document proposing to reach 1.5 million munitions in 2025, as well as several million euros in aid. According to one source, the figure is €6 billion, which the EEAS estimates would be used to fund the most important priorities: ammunition, air defence systems, training and equipment for two brigades. However, the final amount of support has not yet been determined.
No decision on this package is expected to be taken on Monday, as this will be an initial discussion. Such support would require unanimity among the Member States, although contributions would be made on a voluntary basis, and Hungary has already publicly announced that it is against this support.
The European Council is also expected to adopt the 16th package of sanctions against Russia (see EUROPE 13583/1).
DRC. The Ministers will return to the situation in the east of the Republic of Congo (DRC), where the armed rebel group ‘M23’ is continuing its offensive with the support of Rwanda.
While the EU has been singled out for its lack of effective reaction (see EUROPE 13581/14) and the European Parliament has demanded immediate sanctions against Rwanda (see EUROPE 13579/12), it is now up to the European Commission and the Member States to agree on concrete measures.
On Friday, a European diplomat said that the EU27 had reached a consensus on suspending the EU-Rwanda Memorandum of Understanding on minerals (see EUROPE 13353/7). Until now, “there has been hesitation due to a lack of understanding”, the diplomat said.
Other European sources have indicated a more cautious position on the part of the Council of the EU. “I expect a consensus or a political agreement on Monday, but not enough progress to allow legal acts to be adopted”, said one of them. Suspension “remains one of the options on the table”, said another.
In addition, the question of EU financial support (see EUROPE 13526/5) for Rwandan forces engaged in Mozambique as part of a regional counter-terrorism mission remained, according to one of these diplomats, “totally absent” from the Ministers’ preparatory discussions.
Among the other options for sanctions to be discussed is the adoption by the EU of a list of targeted sanctions against high-ranking officials, similar to the measures taken by the United States on Thursday. The United States notably targeted James Kabarebe, Rwanda’s Minister of State for Regional Integration, and Lawrence Kanyuka, spokesman for the ‘M23’, who also owns two companies registered in Europe.
The European Ministers are also expected to explore other diplomatic levers, such as dissuasive measures or the postponement of consultations with Kigali.
The meeting of the EU27, chaired by Kaja Kallas, should in any case result in a reaffirmation of the EU’s support for regional peace processes (see EUROPE 13576/13). On Friday, the European External Action Service announced in a press release that it had summoned Rwanda’s ambassador to the EU, once again condemning the ongoing offensive in Congolese territory.
Middle East. The Foreign Affairs Council will address a number of sensitive regional issues, starting with Syria. Having given their agreement in principle to the easing of sanctions at the previous Council meeting (see EUROPE 13566/4), the Ministers are due to adopt, on Monday, a suspension of a number of measures on energy and transport and new exemptions on finance to allow banking transactions in these two sectors for the reconstruction. Such lifting will be combined with a ‘snapback’ mechanism if the Syrian government does not fulfil its commitments. The exemption for humanitarian aid should also be extended. The ninth Brussels conference on Syria to be held on 19 March, which will focus on financial and political support for the country, will also be discussed.
The Council’s discussions on the Middle East will be closely linked to the EU-Israel Association Council, the first since October 2022 (see EUROPE 13034/12), which will be held the same afternoon. The Ministers will discuss bilateral relations between the two parties, as well as the situation in Gaza and the West Bank. This is an opportunity to talk about the EUBAM Rafah mission, which has enabled 1,700 Gazans to cross the border into Egypt since it was redeployed on 31 January (see EUROPE 13575/11). Tensions with the rest of the region, notably Iran, will also be on the agenda. Conversely, the reconsideration of the association agreement, demanded by some Member States and NGOs because of “violations of international law” in Gaza (see EUROPE 13583/20), will not be discussed, as the need for a unanimous vote makes any suspension unlikely. Stressing the importance of continuing the dialogue with the Israelis, a European diplomat said that there was no question of turning this meeting into a “tribunal”, while refusing to describe it as “business as usual”.
The evening before, the Foreign Ministers will hold talks on the humanitarian situation with UN representatives, including Sigrid Kaag, the Security Council’s Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for Gaza, and Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
In the near future, the Council could take stock of the situation in Lebanon, in particular support for the Lebanese institutions and armed forces, a few days after the long-awaited appointment of a new government (see EUROPE 13576/14), but also the implementation of the ceasefire agreement (see EUROPE 13535/14).
Iran. During their lunch in restricted session, the Ministers will discuss Iran’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, notably through the production of drones, as well as the human rights situation in the country, including the arbitrary detention of Europeans, Tehran’s destabilising actions in the region and its hybrid operations in Europe, and its nuclear programme.
Georgia. The Council will shortly return to the situation in Georgia, which continues to deteriorate (see EUROPE 13575/10). While many Member States would like to see sanctions adopted against those responsible for the worsening situation, Hungary and Slovakia are still opposed. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Justine Manaud and Bernard Denuit)