The High Representative of the Union has changed, but the items on the Foreign Affairs Council agenda remain largely the same. For the very first Council under the leadership of Kaja Kallas, on Monday 16 December, the Ministers will look at Ukraine and the Middle East, in particular Syria, following the fall of the Assad regime, Georgia, where pro-European demonstrations are being repressed, and Belarus.
Ukraine. The Ministers are expected to adopt the 15th package of sanctions against Russia and its supporters. This package was the subject of an agreement between the ambassadors of the Member States on Wednesday 11 December (see EUROPE 13543/17). Around 50 ships from Russia’s ‘phantom fleet’ are expected to be sanctioned. In addition, 16 individuals and three entities should be subject to measures under the new sanctions regime on Russia’s destabilising actions (see EUROPE 13499/26).
In addition to these sanctions, after a discussion with their Ukrainian counterpart by videoconference, the Ministers are expected to discuss military support for Ukraine, at a time when Russian air attacks are increasing.
The question of the ‘European Peace Facility’ could once again be on the agenda. According to sources, the aim would be to reach an agreement on Hungary’s opt-out of the €6.6 billion blocked under the original proposal. The former High Representative’s proposal to introduce a voluntary contribution did not meet with the approval of all Member States. According to one source, the idea of a voluntary contribution was too complicated to reach agreement on in the short term.
The aim would therefore be to reach agreement on extending the opt-out in the 2021 European Peace Facility decision on lethal equipment - for neutral states - to non-lethal equipment. According to a European source, all the Member States except Hungary, which would be affected by this opt-out, have given their agreement. The matter could be referred back to the European Council on 19 December.
The EUMAM mission should also be discussed, while Budapest is still blocking the opening of a coordination unit in Kyiv.
In Berlin on Thursday, the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom, together with the High Representative of the Union, issued a joint statement reiterating their support for Ukraine. “Ukraine must win”, they stressed, adding that they would continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path towards full Euro-Atlantic integration, “including NATO membership”, and towards EU membership. They also undertook to step up military, economic and financial aid to Ukraine, “including mobilising additional European funding”.
See the declaration: https://aeur.eu/f/et0
Georgia. The Ministers are also expected to discuss the situation in the country, where pro-European demonstrators, journalists and civil society are being repressed, and to consider measures.
According to a senior European official, the High Representative could propose sanctioning Georgian officials, as EU Member States have already done at national level. Several sources said on Friday 13 December that they doubted that the Council would reach a consensus. Several countries, including Hungary, are said to be opposed to sanctions. Some countries would like decisions to be taken against Georgian diplomatic and service passports, while others would like to see the liberalisation of all visas reversed. These decisions would require a proposal from the European Commission.
On Friday, a delegation from the European Parliament, on a visit to Georgia, called for the immediate introduction of sanctions against all senior political figures who played a role in orchestrating the democratic backlash, the serious electoral violations and the brutal violence against hundreds of peaceful demonstrators.
See the statement: https://aeur.eu/f/et1
Syria. The Council is also expected to address the situation in the Middle East. While the maintenance of the ceasefire in Lebanon and the support that the EU could provide to the country’s institutions, in particular the army, and the situation in Gaza could be addressed, the focus will be on Syria, a few days after the fall of the Assad regime.
“This is the first discussion on what the EU’s action paths could be”, explained a diplomat, adding that the Member States could ask the High Representative to provide a working basis with options.
Without wishing to make any hasty decisions, the Ministers could discuss the establishment of relations with the new government, the terrorist group HTS. “It is possible to envisage initial contacts, but we need to agree on the messages: the need for an inclusive process, respect for human rights and the territorial integrity of the country”, explained the diplomat. In their view, “We’re taking a cautious approach. (...) The idea is to have very preliminary contacts, but to be very clear about our expectations”.
A senior EU official confirmed that the EU was “thinking of establishing contacts to pass on messages”. The official specified that contacts would take place at a technical level and that this did not mean recognition of HTS. The official used the example of the Taliban, whom the EU does not recognise but with whom it nevertheless has contacts.
The Member States could also discuss the conditions for the return of the EU ambassador to Syria - who is currently in Beirut - and the EU special envoy for Syria, Christian Berger, who was recently appointed but whose mission objectives could change with the new situation on the ground. For its part, Germany has reportedly appointed Tobias Lindner as its special envoy for Syria.
The High Representative will be in Aqaba on Saturday for a meeting with several Foreign Ministers from the region (Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Jordan) and the US Secretary of State to discuss the situation and unify positions.
Belarus. The Council is due to address the situation in Belarus in the near future, in the run-up to the presidential election scheduled for 26 January 2025. A large number of political opponents are in prison or in exile. According to several sources, a further 38 people should be sanctioned because of the situation in the country and its involvement in the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Working methods. In addition, ahead of the Council, the Ministers will meet with the EU’s new High Representative for an informal breakfast to discuss working methods. According to one diplomat, Mrs Kallas would like to launch a process of reflection to make the Foreign Affairs Council more concrete and operational, so that it is better linked with the European Council. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Léa Marchal and Solenn Paulic)