The European Commission’s latest EU Agricultural Outlook 2024-2035 published on Wednesday 11 December, reveals a decline in meat production, a stabilisation of cereals production and milk production reaching a plateau.
A slight increase in EU cereal production is even expected (driven by maize and barley production, while wheat production should pick up after the fall in 2024).
In the dairy sector, the continuing decline in the dairy cow herd will no longer be counterbalanced by growth in milk yields in the medium term. Despite a fall in milk collection, production of certain dairy products (cheese and whey powder) is set to rise. Butter production should see limited growth.
Beef consumption in the EU continues to be hampered by tight supply and high prices. A further fall in production is expected between now and 2035. The fall in EU production could contribute to keeping beef prices higher than in the past. Although EU beef exports are expected to increase slowly between now and 2035, EU live cattle exports are set to decline gradually.
Intensive pigmeat production systems are likely to come in for criticism from society, which could lead to a drop in pigmeat production in the EU. EU pigmeat exports - which increased over the previous decade - are set to decline.
Poultry could continue to benefit from a healthier image and a relatively lower price. Combined with other export opportunities, this should push poultry production upwards by 2035, although the annual growth rate is expected to be lower than that seen over the last decade.
Sugar production is set to fall slowly between now and 2035, due to a decline in yields and sugar beet acreage. Sugar consumption is set to fall gradually as consumers adopt diets that are less rich in sugar. Although the EU will remain a net importer of sugar for most years, its dependence on imports is set to decrease.
Link to the report: https://aeur.eu/f/er3 (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)