On Wednesday 6 December, the European Commission published its latest medium-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, covering the period 2023-2035, which shows that the resilience of EU farmers will continue to be tested by changing weather and market conditions, as well as by changing societal demand.
According to the Commission’s estimates, consumption of beef and pork, sugar and wine is set to fall.
The report also points out that energy and other input costs are likely to remain above pre-2021 levels in the medium term.
As far as food security is concerned, the report states that the EU will remain a net exporter and will continue to contribute to global food security.
Set-aside land, which benefits biodiversity, is expected to increase to 7 million hectares by 2035, while cereal yields will remain stable thanks in part to the positive effects of precision farming, crop rotation and improved soil health, which could offset the negative effects of climate change. By 2035, we also expect to see a shift in land use from cereals to soya and pulses.
As a result of the expected reduction in the dairy herd, milk production in the EU could fall slightly. However, production of cheese, whey and skimmed-milk powder could still increase, while butter production would remain stable.
A further fall in meat production is expected between now and 2035. The number of cows in the EU is set to fall by 3.2 million (-10%). EU pig meat production is set to fall by 0.9% a year until 2035.
Wine consumption in the EU will fall by more than 1% a year to around 20 litres per capita by 2035, 2.4 litres less than the average consumption between 2018 and 2022.
Link to agricultural outlook: https://aeur.eu/f/a0k (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)