In a new study published by the Jacques Delors Institute on 21 November entitled “The EU and China between de-risking and cooperation: scenarios by 2035”, directed by Sylvie Bermann, member of the Board of Directors of the Jacques Delors Institute, and Elvire Fabry, senior researcher in trade geopolitics, a group of experts was asked to explore possible scenarios on key issues in the EU-China relationship.
“But this tapestry of scenarios illustrates that, in pursuing strategic autonomy, the EU cannot rely on a single-faceted approach towards its relations with China”, say Sylvie Bermann and Elvire Fabry in the introduction to the report, before going on to explain that these scenarios “highlight the significant challenges the EU will face whether China becomes more aggressive and assertive or more self-reliant and autarkic”.
The scenarios, divided into ten thematic chapters, explore, in a general way, the economic and geopolitical implications for the European Union in a context of global change, particularly in relation to China.
The report examines the possible deceleration of the Chinese economy and its impact on the reorientation of world trade, highlighting the challenges for the EU in terms of energy transition and security.
It also looks at scientific and technological cooperation with the country and highlights agricultural and environmental issues.
The need for a “derisking” strategy to reduce over-dependence on China is underlined, as is the search for controlled coexistence. Lastly, the text addresses the issue of a potential crisis surrounding Taiwan and the stakes involved in the disappearance of the status quo, which would be followed by sanctions.
To see the report: https://aeur.eu/f/9ny (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)