In order not to run out of energy during the winter in the event of a total interruption of its Russian gas supply, the European Union must save around 12 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional gas over the next 3 months, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recommends in a note published on Monday 18 July.
The gas that is not consumed can then be stored for the winter.
There are concerns that Russia will take advantage of the ongoing maintenance work on Nord Stream 1 to suspend gas deliveries to the EU completely (see EUROPE 12991/23), or reduce them even further when the pipeline reopens (on 21 July).
In the scenario where gas flows through Nord Stream 1 return to their pre-maintenance levels, but are completely interrupted starting 1 October, the EU would need to have filled its gas storage facilities to more than 90% of their capacity to get through the winter, according to the IEA.
“And even then, it could still face supply disruptions in the latter part of the heating season”, the agency worries, while stressing that relying solely on gas deliveries from other suppliers “categorically not enough”.
As the European Commission will present a European Gas Demand Reduction Plan on 20 July (see EUROPE 12993/3), the Executive Director of the IEA, Fatih Birol, recommends five main measures for the EU to save gas.
They include: introducing auction platforms to incentivise EU industrial gas users to reduce demand in return for compensation; temporarily increasing electricity generation from coal and oil, coupled with accelerating the deployment of low-carbon sources, including nuclear power; and reducing electricity demand in public buildings and in households through cooling standards and controls.
See the note: https://aeur.eu/f/2ob (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)