The German government announced the provisional suspension of the certification procedure for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on Tuesday 22 February, in response to Moscow’s decision to recognise the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine.
“There has been a dramatic change in the situation, and we must now reassess the situation, including for Nord Stream 2 (...) Under the present circumstances, certification is not possible”, said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a few hours before the adoption of an EU sanctions package against Russia (see EUROPE 12896/1).
This decision was quickly welcomed by the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba. He said it was proof that “true leadership involves making difficult decisions in difficult times”.
Completed in September 2021, Nord Stream 2 consists of a double pipeline directly from Russia to Germany, stretching 1,234 kilometres across the Baltic Sea. However, its commissioning has been delayed since November, following a decision by the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) to temporarily suspend its certification for legal reasons (see EUROPE 12833/8).
While the certification procedure was due to conclude this summer, Mr Scholz’s announcement could therefore prolong the suspension.
For its part, the European Commission welcomed the German government’s decision. “I think the German government is absolutely right. Nord Stream 2 has to be assessed in light of the security of energy supply for the whole of Europe”, said its President, Ursula von der Leyen.
She added, “This crisis shows that Europe is still too dependent on Russian gas. We have to diversify our suppliers and massively invest in renewables”.
What are the consequences for the EU’s energy security?
While the suspension of Nord Stream 2 has no direct impact on Russian gas supplies to the EU, as the pipeline had not yet been commissioned, the German decision raises the risk of retaliation by Moscow regarding its gas exports.
The Czech Prime Minister, Petr Fiala, assured the Czech Parliament that his country was “prepared to deal with various scenarios, including a possible interruption of energy supplies from Russia”.
Asked about the risk to the EU’s energy security, the European Commission was reassuring.
“We have looked into all possible disruption scenarios in case Russia decides to partially or completely disrupt gas supplies to the EU. Our models show that we are now rather on the safe side this winter”, a spokesperson for the institution said, echoing recent comments by Mrs von der Leyen (see EUROPE 12892/30).
The spokesperson also recalled that the European Commission had recently increased its contacts with partner countries to ensure the EU’s energy security in the event of a halt to Russian supplies. These partners include not only gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers such as Norway, the United States, Azerbaijan, Nigeria, Egypt and Qatar, but also major gas-consuming countries such as Japan and South Korea, which could redirect some of their supplies to Europe, if necessary (see EUROPE 12887/11).
“More than 120 vessels brought ten billion cubic metres of LNG to Europe in the first month of this year”, the spokesperson said.
For his part, Mr Scholz announced that he had asked the German Ministry of Economic Affairs to carry out a new analysis of the security of Germany’s energy supply.
Towards another rise in gas prices?
A few hours after the announcement of the suspension of Nord Stream 2, German Economics Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference in Düsseldorf that gas prices were likely to rise further in the short term.
On Twitter, the deputy chair of the Russian Security Council and former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, appeared to issue a warning to the EU, writing: “Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans will very soon be paying €2,000 for 1,000 cubic metres of natural gas!”
Following the General Affairs Council, Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič said the EU institution will present its communication on energy next week, which will expand the toolbox of EU measures to tackle soaring energy prices and “ensure affordable energy for the coming winter” (see EUROPE 12894/5).
In the current geopolitical context, the energy issue will again be on the agenda of the European summit on Thursday 24 and Friday 25 March, said the French Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune. (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)