The Ministers of Foreign Affairs will meet again on Monday 22 February in Brussels for an EU Council that will once again have a full agenda.
Myanmar. The ministers will first quickly take stock of the situation in Myanmar, following the military coup of 1 February (see EUROPE 12586/24). The ministers are expected to discuss the actions to be taken after the coup. “We have a series of options that exist, from sanctions to trade preferences... This is work that needs to be done and the decision is up to the ministers”, said a European diplomat. According to a European source, the conclusions that the ministers may adopt contain proposals for restrictive measures against military officials. The source added that the text had reached consensus at the technical level.
Neighbourhood. The EU Council is also expected to take stock of the EU’s southern neighbourhood, following the presentation by the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of a strategy on ‘A renewed partnership with the southern neighbourhood, a new agenda for the Mediterranean’ (see EUROPE 12654/8). Initially on the agenda of the December European Council but postponed due to lack of time, relations with the southern neighbourhood will also be discussed at the extraordinary summit of heads of state or government on 26 February. The joint communication on multilateralism, presented on 17 February, will also be mentioned (see EUROPE 12660/6).
Belarus. The situation in Belarus, where repression against civil society continues (see EUROPE 12660/15), will also be the subject of a quick debate. Two Belarusian journalists were sentenced on Thursday 18 February to two years in prison for their coverage of the protest movement. This condemnation was denounced by the spokesperson of the European External Action Service on 19 February.
The ministers could review the measures already in place against the regime and what further steps could be taken, according to a European diplomat. The EU Council is also expected in the coming days to extend the arms embargo, the ban on exports of equipment that could be used for internal repression, and targeted sanctions against the country for one year, i.e. until 28 February 2021 (see EUROPE 12427/24). A total of 88 individuals and 7 entities are subject to sanctions.
Iran. The ministers are also expected to quickly revisit the Iranian nuclear agreement, as Tehran is moving further and further away from its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (see other news).
Africa. Finally, the High Representative will report on the N’Djamena summit of the G5 Sahel that took place on 16 February (see EUROPE 12659/21), and the Finnish Minister Pekka Haavisto, who visited Ethiopia and Sudan on behalf of the EU in early February (see EUROPE 12654/23), will report to the EU Council on a set of recommendations to defend the EU’s objectives, in particular regarding humanitarian access. The ministers are expected to assess the situation on the spot.
The ministers will then discuss Russia, the strategic compass, and Hong Kong in depth.
Russia. Relations with Russia will be on the agenda, a few weeks after the High Representative’s difficult trip to Moscow (see EUROPE 12653/12). The EU Council will have to determine the consequences of Moscow’s lack of willingness to strengthen ties with the Union while at the same time deepening its relations with certain Member States.
According to a European source, the EU is united on the five guiding principles governing relations with Russia and on the need for a strong message against Moscow. She added that the atmosphere has changed since Mr Borrell’s visit to Russia.
The ministers are expected to reflect on how to keep open the channels of communication with Russia in order to cooperate on matters of common interest. “We have to find a way to have dialogue and contacts with Russia on certain subjects, and we want to have them in a united way”, explained a diplomat.
In response to the arrest and conviction of political opponent Alexei Navalny, the ministers could agree to the preparation of targeted sanctions. “The discussion itself is open”, a European source said.
While some States want broad sanctions that would also apply to oligarchs, others would like to ensure the legal basis of the measures, and thus focus on those directly involved in the arrest and conviction of Mr Navalny. These measures, if decided, could be adopted under the new EU sanctions regime on human rights violations. The shutdown of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project, requested by the European Parliament but rejected by Germany, is not on the agenda.
The EU Council will also discuss ways of strengthening EU support for Russian civil society.
EU-Russia relations will be the subject of a strategic debate at the summit on 25 and 26 March.
Strategic compass. The EU Council will then discuss the strategic compass. After a threat analysis concluded at the end of 2020, the framework document was circulated among the delegations (see EUROPE 12655/17). The aim is to adopt this strategic compass in the first half of 2022, but discussions are progressing slowly due to disagreement among Member States on its content. While some Member States - notably France - want to emphasise the EU’s strategic autonomy, others, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, are committed to stronger transatlantic relations and relations with NATO. Finally, Member States such as Austria, Malta, and Finland are neutral countries and are not members of NATO. The process for creating the strategic compass is led by the Member States, and the European External Action Service is just holding the pen, summarised a senior official. In his view, this discussion is important in view of the summit on 26 February, when European leaders will discuss security and defence.
Hong Kong. As the situation in Hong Kong continues to deteriorate, the ministers will review the implementation of the measures taken by the EU in July (see EUROPE 12538/10), assess their impact, and see whether the Union’s response is appropriate to the situation. On the basis of their assessment, “the ministers will draw up the work that can be continued”, said a European diplomat, while, according to a senior official, the European External Action Service is expected to present the ministers with “possible measures of different kinds, for the short and long term” that could be adopted. Some delegations could also insist on support for civil society, according to one source. This will be the third EU Council in a row at which the situation in Hong Kong will be discussed.
Finally, the ministers will hold a two-hour videoconference with the new US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. The discussion could focus on China, Russia, Iran, the situation in the Middle East, climate change, Covid-19, or multilateralism.
The EU Council is expected to adopt without discussion sanctions against 19 Venezuelans, following parliamentary elections on 6 December which the EU has described as illegitimate as well as serious human rights violations reported by the United Nations (see EUROPE 12661/2). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)