On Friday 19 February, the European Commission published the studies aimed at assessing the effects of two new European road transport requirements adopted in July (see EUROPE 12524/19) as part of the ‘mobility I’ package.
One requires transport companies to ensure the return of their vehicles to the State where they are established every eight weeks. The other grants the option to restrict cabotage on national road sections used in international combined transport operations.
These provisions, introduced by MEPs and the EU Council, were not part of the Commission’s initial proposals, which feared their impact on the climate, the environment and the single market (see EUROPE 12395/7).
The study on the return of lorries indeed indicates that, if all the operators concerned comply with this new provision while modifying their operations as little as possible - the most likely scenario - additional CO2 emissions could reach 2.9 million tonnes in 2023, i.e. a 4.6% increase in emissions from international road freight. In the two other, more optimistic scenarios considered, the additional emissions would represent an increase of 0.8 to 1.3%.
The changes concerning cabotage, on the other hand, could lead to an estimated 397,000 tonnes of additional CO2 emissions.
The sum of the additional CO2 emissions brought on by these two measures could, therefore, represent an increase of more than 5% in the total estimated emissions of international road freight.
Cabotage restrictions also risk jeopardising the competitiveness of rail transport. The return of vehicles could, for its part, result in additional costs for market operators and increased waiting times at non-Schengen borders.
Data to be qualified
“We are a long way from the disaster announced by the Commission”, an institutional source close to the issue said to put things into perspective. The source also expects the environmental impact of the return of lorries to diminish after 2023, once the provisions on the posting of drivers have entered into force in the Member States. The latter should, in fact, make the use of cabotage much less competitive, dissuade companies from using it and, therefore, limit the return of vehicles.
As for the provisions on cabotage, it is unlikely that a significant number of States would apply them, with the exception of Sweden and Denmark, a second institutional source indicated to EUROPE.
For Ismail Ertug MEP (S&D, Germany), rapporteur on cabotage and market access, the study on the return of lorries is above all proof of “how severe the problem of letterbox companies and social dumping in the European transport sector really is”.
The document states that half of Central and Eastern European hauliers’ lorries return only once a year to their country of establishment, and that the wages of drivers in these countries are only 24% of those of their counterparts in Western Europe.
“The environmental impact of the actual problem - the hundreds of thousands of trucks doing business thousands of kilometres away from their home base - has unfortunately never been assessed”, he said.
Upcoming discussions
Sticking to its position that these provisions are not compatible with the European ‘Green Deal’, the Commission announced that it would open a discussion with the States, the European Parliament, and the parties concerned.
“I now call on the Member States and the European Parliament to reflect on the projected negative impacts of these two amendments and share their views with the Commission”, wrote Commissioner for Transport Adina Vălean to the chair of Parliament’s competent committee this Friday in a letter seen by EUROPE.
Asked about the next steps, Mrs Vălean’s spokespeople, without giving further details on the announced discussions, did not rule out the possibility of a new legislative proposal. This will then have to be submitted before the controversial provisions come into force in February 2022.
Some MEPs, such as Marian Marinescu (EPP, Romania), hope that such an approach will make it possible to remove the provision on the return of vehicles.
However, a resumption of legislative work is unlikely. It will not be easy to get the necessary support in the European College of Commissioners, and the majorities, both in the EU Council and Parliament, have not changed since July.
See the study on the return of lorries: https://bit.ly/2OXKXu5 and the study on cabotage: https://bit.ly/3ubIwnE (Original version in French by Agathe Cherki)