In a new study published on Thursday 11 February, the Agora Energiewende think tank seeks to identify the “no-regret” hydrogen infrastructure Europe requires in order to achieve the target of climate neutrality by 2050, i.e. avoiding investments in future stranded assets.
“The question is (...) what infrastructure can be built today without Europe overbuilding for hydrogen”, said Frank Peter, head of industry at Agora Energiewende.
The study, which was carried out by AFRY Management Consulting, only covers industrial sectors that are difficult to decarbonise (steel, ammonia, methanol, petrochemicals and other chemicals), and did not look into the issue of hydrogen use in some types of transport such as buses, trains, lorries, planes and ships.
Although the European Commission is planning to use hydrogen in this way (see EUROPE 12523/1), it cannot be considered as “no-regret”, according to Agora Energiewende.
“Focusing on industrial hydrogen demand is a risk-minimising strategy, as hydrogen might not, for instance, be widely used for heating and road transport because electrification is much more efficient”, the organisation said.
Based on industrial demand for hydrogen, the authors have identified “no-regret corridors” for the initial pipelines, and provide a summary map for planning a European hydrogen network.
In the end, the study concludes that, following a “no-regret” approach, any future hydrogen network will be smaller than the current natural gas network, even if industrial demand for hydrogen follows the most optimistic scenario. The report also states that renewable hydrogen will be the cheapest option in the long term, with a transitional role for fossil-based hydrogen with carbon capture that could end as early as the late 2020s.
The study can be found at: https://bit.ly/2Z3fxnE (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)