In a report published on Monday 23 November, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) warns that coronavirus infections could rise again if EU Member States relax restrictions too quickly.
The ECDC report is a prospective study that models a range of scenarios up to 25 December, depending on whether Member States keep the current restrictive measures, sharply limit contacts as in April 2020 or lift the measures before the festive season.
“If recently introduced measures are lifted on 21 December 2020, we foresee that an increase in Covid-19 hospitalisation may occur as early as the first week of January 2021. If measures were lifted earlier, on 7 December 2020, the associated increase may begin before 24 December”, the ECDC says.
At last Thursday’s informal European summit, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, announced that she planned to present a proposal for a gradual and coordinated approach to lifting containment measures (see EUROPE 12605/2).
Waiting for a vaccine
Although the European Union has pointed out that a vaccine is not a miracle solution (golden standard), it is relying heavily on a vaccine to halt the epidemic.
The Commission has already pre-ordered doses of vaccines from five producers (AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Johnson&Johnson, Pfizer-BioNTech and CureVac) on behalf of Member States and is on course to conclude a sixth contract with Moderna.
Of these candidate vaccines, BioNTech and Moderna have already announced that their candidate vaccines are more than 90% effective and, on Monday 23 November, AstraZeneca reported that its candidate vaccine achieved “an average of 70%”, following a clinical trial involving 20,000 people.
“Although I have great confidence in the projects of BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna, it is nevertheless good that we also have a vaccine candidate that uses a different technique”, said German MEP Peter Liese (EPP), highlighting the fact that AstraZeneca’s candidate vaccine uses more traditional technology, which makes its vaccine less expensive and easier to store.
Joint procurement procedure facing obstacles
The most recent summary report from the Health Security Committee (HSC), which dates back to the end of October but has only just been published, states that there seems to be a problem with the joint procurement procedure.
The document notes that the countries participating in this mechanism (37 in total) can order “large quantities of gloves, coveralls, goggles, face shields, FFP2 masks, FFP3 masks, surgical masks, ventilators, 30 types of laboratory equipment and remdesivir. Contracts are also being signed for ICU medicines”. The report adds that only ten countries have taken advantage of these contracts and that 90% of the stock is still available.
It states, however, that “joint procurement of medical equipment for vaccination is also currently under evaluation”.
It should be noted that the European Commission continues to support the use of remdesivir, despite the unfavourable opinion issued by the World Health Organization.
The ECDC report can be found at: https://bit.ly/33qZrqL and the HSC report at: https://bit.ly/3pWqLq6 (Original version in French by Sophie Petitjean)