Foreign Affairs will be the focus of the first session and dinner of the Extraordinary European Council meeting in Brussels on 1 and 2 October.
The Heads of State or Government will thus devote their dinner to the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and EU-Turkey relations.
While they have always been complex and multifaceted – Turkey’s foreign policy, including in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya, migration, Rule of law, territorial conflicts in the Mediterranean – bilateral relations between the EU and Ankara have deteriorated over the summer. Since then, Turkey and Greece have announced exploratory talks on the Eastern Mediterranean (see EUROPE 12566/14), but Turkish drilling vessels are still stationed in the Cypriot exclusive economic zone.
“Our objective is to create a space for constructive dialogue with Turkey in order to achieve stability and security throughout the region and to ensure full respect for the sovereignty and sovereign rights of all EU Member States”, explains the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in his letter of invitation to EU leaders on the evening of Tuesday 29 September.
But such a dialogue will only be possible if Turkey engages constructively, he adds. He goes on to recall that “all options remain on the table to defend the legitimate interests of the EU and its Member States” (see EUROPE 12554/16).
According to one diplomat, the EU cannot continue on in a negative spiral with Turkey. “We need to find a balance between proposals from us and a sustainable and verifiable improvement on the part of the Turks”, he summarised.
For another diplomat, if there is a “unanimous will” to secure or restore improved relations with Ankara, this presupposes that certain conditions are met, the first being respect for the sovereignty of the Member States. Stressing Turkey’s efforts towards Greece, the diplomat explained that the Europeans had to find the means, the “incentives”, the “right message” to send to Turkey to do the same with regard to Cyprus.
The EU summit is not expected to agree on restrictive measures against Ankara, but the EU27 could recall that the measures presented by High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Josep Borrell at the end of August do exist. “And, if necessary, they are available to defend our interests”, according to a diplomat (see EUROPE 12548/1). The aim of the discussion, he said, would be to find ways to ensure European solidarity with Cyprus and to ensure that Turkey withdraws its vessels from its exclusive economic zone.
Member States’ solidarity with Nicosia will therefore be an important focus of the discussion. “Cyprus seeks sanctions (against Turkey), but also for solidarity (from the Europeans), for its rights and aspirations to be taken into account. This is what the European Council is going to discuss in substance”, a source at the Élysée Palace predicted.
Belarus. And active solidarity could make it possible to lift the Cypriot veto on sanctions against Belarus, another subject for discussion by the European Council.
“This country is a member of the Eastern Partnership, with which the EU has the ambition to build a relationship”, a European diplomat recalled, adding that the EU could not remain silent in the face of the situation on the ground. Leaders had already discussed Belarus at an extraordinary summit on 19 August (see EUROPE 12544/9).
If there is consensus among the EU27, the European Council could give the political signal to enable the EU Council to finalise the adoption of sanctions in the next few days. On 19 August, European leaders pledged to take such measures.
Heads of State or Government could also discuss whether or not to include President Alexander Lukashenko on the sanctions list, as the Baltic States and the United Kingdom have already done.
Although, according to one diplomat, the European Foreign Ministers have come out in favour of this inclusion, several Member States, including Sweden, which is to take over the OSCE Presidency, still have reservations (see EUROPE 12564/1).
China. At their first working session, the President of the European Council is expected to brief leaders on the EU/China summit, held by videoconference on 14 September (see EUROPE 12559/1), before engaging in an early discussion on bilateral relations.
“We want to work with China to address major global challenges such as the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change. We also want to insist on a more balanced and reciprocal economic relationship, ensuring a level playing field. And we will continue to promote our values and standards”, says Mr Michel in his letter of invitation.
Relations with China are one of the priorities of the German EU Council Presidency.
Russia. The leaders should also quickly reconsider the poisoning of Russian opponent Alexei Navalny (see EUROPE 12556/2), recalling their condemnation of this poisoning and the need for Russia to cooperate with the OPCW.
Nagorno-Karabakh. Finally, while the President of the European Council held talks with the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia on Wednesday 30 September, the escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh is expected to be addressed (see EUROPE 12569/15). The leaders will likely call for an immediate ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, the resumption of dialogue and the removal of all foreign interference.
According to a European source, conclusions could be adopted on Foreign Affairs at the end of the working session. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with editorial staff)