The draft list published on 2 October reveals that it is the EU agricultural sector that will bear the lion's share of the €6.84 billion ($7.497 billion) of imports that may be subject to tariff sanctions by the United States under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) decision (see EUROPE 12340/13, 12339/10).
The tariff increases, of 10% on large civil aircraft and 25% on other products, will be applied by Washington as of 18 October, on “a range of imports from EU Member States, the bulk of which will be applied to imports from France Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, the four countries behind the illegal subsidies”, said the Office of the American Trade Representative (USTR), Robert Lighthizer, in a statement issued on the evening of 2 October, which accompanied a new draft list of products (subject to validation by Mr Lighthizer).
Impact on European operators
At the time of publication of this article, no detailed analysis was available to assess the actual amount of these sanctions – or, therefore, the real impact they could have on the European economy – or which European states would be most affected.
Nevertheless, it seems that the slap was less severe than expected.
With a “limited” increase of 10% and the exclusion of spare parts, the aeronautics industry seems to be doing better than expected.
Not surprisingly, it is the agri-food sector that suffers most from these sanctions (see EUROPE 12287/12, 12257/13). Exports of fruit preparations, molluscs, dairy products and cheese from the 28 Member States (with the notable exception, for certain tariff lines, of France and Poland) will be penalised when they enter the United States.
The four supporting Member States will be subject to additional duties on their exports of olives and certain categories of wine; exports of sausages, virgin olive oil and green olives from Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom will also be penalised, as will the liqueurs of these countries, Ireland and Italy. More specifically, for the British, whisky and a whole range of clothing made of cotton, wool, cashmere or synthetic fibres are affected. For Germans, coffee, metalworking tools, machinery and photographic equipment. Germans and English will also be taxed on biscuits and waffles, books, lithographs, images and photographs, as well as certain construction machinery.
Car sanctions defered ?
It is expected that Germany would be particularly affected by these tariff increases. However, as the election campaign begins, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have somewhat calmed his propensity to apply tariff sanctions on car imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The United States has also stressed that it will show exceptional flexibility on the timing of Mr Trump's final decision, which is theoretically expected in November 2019. If this were to be confirmed, Berlin would ultimately fare better.
To consult the list: https://bit.ly/2nY5C3J (Original version in French by Hermine Donceel)