For Romania, a European election unlike any other will be held on Sunday 26 May. On the same day, Romanians will also send a message to the European Union on the respect for the rule of law in their country. In a referendum called in April by President Klaus Iohannis, they will be asked to comment on the recent controversial justice reforms introduced by the Social Democratic government (see EUROPE 12243/11).
These reforms have been heavily criticised because they call into question the fight against corruption in the country. And they have led the Commission to give serious thought in recent days to the opening of proceedings against Bucharest for the European mechanism on respect for the rule of law, which could trigger the famous Article 7 (see EUROPE 12253/15).
Recent polls for the European elections on 23 May again put Ludovic Orban's National Liberal Party (NLP), which is affiliated with the EPP group, in the lead (credited with 28.5% of voting intentions), followed by the ruling Social Democratic Party (SDP) of Prime Minister Viorica Dancila, whose proportion of voting intentions continues to decline, according to Romanian media.
In third place is the Alianța 2020 USR+PLUS party of former Commissioner Dacian Cioloș, which is reportedly currently supported by Guy Verhofstadt's ALDE group and by the future group to be formed with the French La République en Marche, followed by the ALDE group of the Senate President, Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, and the party of former Prime Minister Victor Ponta (Party for Romania).
The ALDE group in the European Parliament has severed its links with the ALDE of the Romanian Senate President because of its support for the PSD-led coalition and is instead seeking to support the former Agriculture Commissioner, according to several media reports. The People's Movement Party of former President Traian Băsescu will reportedly come in sixth place after these other parties.
According to EuropeElects, the EPP will win a total of 12 seats, the S&D 9 seats and ALDE 11 seats, although the survey does not say whether it yet takes into account the Romanian ALDE or the new party of Dacian Cioloș. The country will elect a total of 32 deputies.
Internal political changes?
However, more than the European election, it is the results of the presidential referendum that will be watched closely. Klaus Iohannis indicated, in a speech in the middle of the week, that political consequences should be drawn from the results of this consultative referendum.
As a reminder, the president, a member of the EPP, wants to question voters about the highly controversial measures adopted by the Social Democratic government, allied with the Liberals, which amend, among other things, the Criminal Code to reduce the prosecution of corruption. The other question put to Romanian voters concerns the way in which the current government is proceeding with emergency decrees to bring about major changes in the judicial system.
On 22 May, President Iohannis said he was "convinced that the results for the European Parliament and the referendum will generate changes in the political arena", according to Romania Insider. He also said he was ready to appoint another Prime Minister if Mrs Dancila should lose her party's support in the process.
The President of the Senate, in any case, called on voters to boycott this referendum, which he considers to be an instrument for the President of the country to attract more voters to the polls and to boost Ludovic Orban's PNL. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)