From Thursday 23 May until Sunday 26 May, more than 420 million Europeans are invited to elect their 751 representatives to the European Parliament.
On Thursday, the British, in the absence of an effective Brexit, and the Dutch will be the first to go to the polls. The Irish and Czechs will follow on Friday, with the latter also being allowed to vote on Saturday. In the remaining 24 Member States, voters will vote on Sunday 26 May. It should be noted that electronic voting is only allowed in Estonia. EUROPE has compiled all the electoral lists in the 28 Member States (see EUROPE 12260/3).
If Brexit becomes a reality during the next parliamentary term, the composition of the European Parliament will be reduced to 705 MEPs in accordance with the European Council's decision to take a decision on the basis of an initial proposal from Parliament (see EUROPE 12040/5). As a result of this reform, Spain and France gain 5 seats, Italy and the Netherlands gain 3 seats.
Compared to 2014, the European Parliament really did campaign this year to encourage European citizens to fulfil their civic duty (see EUROPE 12249/4). On social media, several awareness campaigns on European issues have been launched to combat indifference, especially among young people. The European Parliament has thus set up a network of 25,000 people who are involved in spreading the message ‘This time I am voting’. Usually confined to a corporate message, it has opted for a more emotional message by producing the ‘Choose your future’ video, which has gone viral, inviting voters to choose the Europe in which the next generation will live. One of the most original initiatives is taking place in Lithuania where an 'electoral forest' will be planted at the initiative of voters proving that they have put a ballot paper in the ballot box. The private sector was also more involved in the election campaign.
According to the European Parliament, this engagement has doubled the impact of messages in the media related to the European elections compared to 2014.
Will this be enough to engage an electorate that understands the importance of the challenges facing the European Union, but wonders whether Europe is the appropriate level to act and meet their immediate expectations such as purchasing power and employment?
The average rate of participation in European elections has only decreased since 1979 and with the introduction of voting by universal suffrage, in 40 years it has fallen from almost 62% to 42.6%. There were large differences between Member States in 2014, with participation rates ranging from 13% in Slovakia to 90% in Belgium, where voting is compulsory. According to a Eurobarometer survey at the end of April, only 5% of respondents could say with certainty when elections would take place in their country and 35% of Europeans of voting age said they would do so (see EUROPE 12246/3).
It is a fact that the European elections are struggling to command the attention of the masses. Debates in the Member States often remain confined to national issues, with voters being more likely to express their views on the conduct of the government in power than to choose the party best able to defend their European priorities in Brussels. Few specialists outside the Brussels microcosm are also able to explain the process for the top candidates of European political parties (‘Spitzenkandidaten’) and to name them, even though the process is intended to give the European elections a face.
On Sunday, the official partial results will start to arrive only after the closure of the last polling stations in Italy, after 23:00. First estimates will be available at national level from 18:00 Brussels time (CET), on the basis of exit polls carried out in some Member States. Shortly afterwards, at around 20:15, the European Parliament will be able to establish a first projection of its composition for the next parliamentary term, which will be fine-tuned as national results are announced and then formalised.
It is important to note that this projection will be made on the basis of the existing political groups during the parliamentary term for 2014-2019. Elected representatives from national parties - such as La République en marche! in France - will be included in an ‘other’ group as long as they are not officially affiliated to a European Parliament political group. It will be necessary to look at the national results to see how many seats these parties should win and then estimate how they could strengthen a political group with which they have an affinity.
Developed in the same way, Parliament's latest projections from 18 April showed an increasing fragmentation of the future Parliament. The Christian Democratic (EPP) and Social Democratic (S&D) Groups would together lose the absolute majority in the European Assembly (see EUROPE 12239/23). The days of when these two groups shared the presidency of the European Parliament for two and a half years seem to be over. A Eurosceptic and Europhobic surge was announced, some estimating it at one third of the seats. As researcher Nathalie Brack told EUROPE (see EUROPE 12255/3), it remains to be seen whether anti-European integration movements will be sufficiently united to have the power to do harm.
All national data will be fed into a specific European Parliament website and will be used by the European Parliament to prepare its projections. Visit: https://www.election-results.eu/
And after 26 May?
On Sunday, representatives of the political groups in the European Parliament and the top candidates of the European parties will be quick to react to the first results from Brussels. As in 2014, they could ask the European Council to respect the Spitzenkandidaten process through which the top candidate who can be supported by an absolute majority of 376 MEPs must chair the European Commission.
“Strengthening the 'Parliament' institution as such is a point that connects all groups", a parliamentary source revealed on Tuesday 21 May. On the morning of Tuesday 28 May, the meeting of the Conference of Presidents of the political groups will be carefully scrutinised in this respect.
Five years ago, the European Council proposed Jean-Claude Juncker, the EPP’s Spitzenkandidat, to chair the Commission, a suggestion that the European Parliament endorsed in mid-July 2014 (see EUROPE 11122/1). Since then, the European Parliament has warned that it will only vote for one top candidate (see EUROPE 11956/2). The problem is that the Liberals did not choose a top candidate, but a Europe team (‘Spitzenmannschaft’) (see EUROPE 12219/3).
This year, there is no doubt that pro-European political families likely to support a Spitzenkandidat will raise the stakes and make their support for a presidential candidate conditional on the prior development of a programme that meets their expectations. The S&D Group even believes in the possibility of a 'progressive' pro-European coalition from Mr Tsipras to Mr Macron that would put the EPP’s Spitzenkandidat, Germany’s Manfred Weber out of the picture (see EUROPE 12255/4, 12255/2).
On Tuesday 28 May, over dinner, the 28 EU Heads of State or Government will analyse the results of the European elections. The European Treaty requires them to take the elections into account in order to propose the person who could preside over the European Commission to the European Parliament. But European leaders refuse any automaticity in the accession of a Spitzenkandidat to the head of the Commission (see EUROPE 11968/2).
During the Sibiu European Summit in early May, several of them, including French President Emmanuel Macron, reiterated their reluctance regarding this process, particularly because of the absence of transnational lists that would have allowed Spitzenkandidaten to be elected by all Europeans (see EUROPE 12251/2). On Wednesday, Mr Macron explained to the Belgian daily newspaper Le Soir that his fellow countryman Michel Barnier, who had not applied to be the Spitzenkandidat for the Christian Democratic family this time because of his obligations as the EU's chief negotiator on Brexit, had the attributes to join the list of people likely to preside over the Commission.
For Olivier Costa, professor at the College of Europe, the Spitzenkandidat process is a potentially “explosive” institutional structure (see EUROPE 12250/5).
The identity of the future President of the Commission is important because it will guide the decisions expected for further appointments to other senior European positions including the Presidencies of the European Council, the ECB, the European Parliament and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
In Sibiu, Mr Tusk expressed the wish that these appointments be made "in packages", respecting a subtle political and geographical balance between small and large Member States. Acknowledging the difficulties in respecting gender equality in this process, he expressed his willingness to move quickly and reach a decision by the 28 at the European Council on 20 and 21 June, even if it meant proceeding by a qualified majority vote. He himself was not the subject of a unanimous decision by his counterparts, with the opposition of the Polish Government, while the former British Prime Minister, David Cameron, was opposed to Mr Juncker.
Reaching an early decision would avoid, as in 2014, the need for repeated European summits and would facilitate the establishment of the post-Juncker Commission.
From the announcement of the results of the European elections until the inaugural session of the European Parliament in the week beginning Tuesday 2 July, the political groups will gradually reconstitute themselves, negotiate new arrivals and/or try to avoid departures. With each official announcement of elected representatives joining a group, the European Parliament will update the composition of its hemicycle.
The main groups have already scheduled internal meetings to develop their strategies. The EPP Group will bring together its former and new MEPs in the afternoon of Wednesday 29 May. In San Sebastian on 11 and 13 June, the European Christian Democratic family could adopt its position on the issue of appointments. Within the S&D Group, the first internal meetings are scheduled for 11 and 18 June. For the Conservatives in the ECR Group, 5 and 19 June have been selected. The Liberals announced the first meeting of the ALDE Group on Tuesday 28 May. The same applies to the far left, which is part of the EUL/NGL Group. The G/EFA Group, which is already working on its strategic position, will also assess the election situation on Tuesday 28 May. After a second meeting on 5 June, it will elect a new dual presidency on 12 June, with the renewal of the duo formed by Germany's Ska Keller and Belgium's Philippe Lamberts being anticipated. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)