The debate between the seven main German parties on Monday 20 May on the public channel ARD was a reflection of the national election campaign for the European elections: courteous and monotonous.
After all, 81% of Germans think that being a member of the European Union is "a good thing", according to a recent Eurobarometer survey. Even the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), born in 2013 from a Eurosceptic movement, is asking Germany to leave the EU only as a last resort option.
The Ibizagate scandal, which dismantled the Austrian government coalition (see EUROPE 12259/4), allowed Christlich Demokratische Union (CDU) President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to repeat her opposition to an alliance with the far right, stressing in the debate that Heinz-Christian "Strache and the FPÖ demonstrate what right-wing populists mean in Europe". AfD spokesman Jörg Meuthen simply kicked the ball into touch, stressing that this is an "internal matter" for the Austrian neighbour.
CDU still in the lead
Despite these European affinities, only half of Germany's 64.8 million voters plan to go to the polls on Sunday to choose their MEPs from among the 41 parties competing (see EUROPE 12260/3).
The CDU remains the favourite with 30% of voting intentions. The Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) falls below 18% of voting intentions, behind Bündnis 90/Die Grünen credited with 19%. The AfD would stabilise at around 12% while the far-left Die Linke party would obtain 7%.
Even with the claim to be Emmanuel Macron's allies of choice, the Liberals of the Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) did not take off, stagnating at 5% of voting intentions. Since, for the last time, Germany does not have a 5% threshold, the satirical Die Partei or Die Piratenpartei could still send MEPs to the European Parliament.
"Greta effect" versus "yellow vests effect"
According to the German press, the 'Greta Thunberg' effect is that climate is at the centre of the campaign. And for good reason: the environment is the main concern for 48% of Germans, before social issues (43%) and far ahead of immigration (25%), according to a survey published on May 16.
The SPD, CDU-CSU coalition government is already working hard to 'look green' (see EUROPE 12254/7). They must present measures to implement the 2020 targets at the end of May. On 22 May, they adopted the aid measures for the regions affected by the coal exit by 2038.
Fuel taxation remains more conflictual. While Mrs Kramp-Karrenbauer spiralled about a "global package" during the debate, Markus Söder simplified the rhetoric. "Even with good intentions, yellow vests should not be provoked in Germany", summarised Minister-President CSU of Bavaria, home of car manufacturer BMW.
Only ecologists and AfD are sharply opposed to CO2 taxes. The AfD's message on its election posters is clear: "If you are fed up with the Greens, vote blue." For the far right in Germany, the enemy to defeat are the "climate utopians". To reject the extreme right, go vote, the Greens replied.
Greens and AfD shoulder to shoulder in the East
It will be a tight match between these two parties in the Eastern Länder. The main challenge will be to mobilise young people and abstentionists.
Despite simultaneous municipal elections, "the turnout was 50% in Brandenburg in 2014", notes Jochen Franzke of the University of Potsdam, for whom "it will be difficult to do much better". Highly mobilised, AfD could win up to 30% of the votes in part of Saxony or Brandenburg.
Stress test for Nahles and AKK
The election will be a test for the 'big' parties in these regions, where capital regional elections will take place this autumn. However, Andrea Nahles, who has chaired the SPD since April 2018, has not really demonstrated her ability to get the Social Democrats out of the rut. Names of potential successors, such as Matthias Miersch, are already circulating.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's situation is hardly any better. A party seminar on June 3 should prepare for "a new phase", she announced. While rumours, which are still denied, are regularly heard about Angela Merkel's possible departure to Brussels, Mrs Kramp-Karrenbauer recently recalled the division of tasks: the current German Chancellor "heads the government until 2021 and my duty is to put the CDU in working order for the next legislative elections". It is also a way to protect Mrs Merkel at least until 2020, when Germany will take over the six-monthly presidency of the EU Council. (Original version in French by Nathalie Steiwer)