The British government looks set to lose a key Brexit vote next week. What then?
EU leaders will meet just two days after the vote for their regular December summit, but are in no mood to reopen the withdrawal agreement (see EUROPE 12145). They may be willing to draft minor amendments to the political declaration on future EU-UK relations, however, and language to reassure Brexiteers that the Irish border backstop will never need to be used.
Delaying Brexit day is another option being floated, which would give Theresa May more time to get an amended bill through early next year.
In an interestingly timed (but not legally binding) opinion this week, the Advocate General of the European Court of Justice said the UK does have the right to revoke unilaterally its Article 50 notification, effectively stopping Brexit in its tracks (see EUROPE 12152). The final ruling is expected on Monday.
And there is even speculation in London that the prime minister could delay the vote, which is set to take place on Tuesday.
MPs have had three days of divisive and often repetitive debates on the draft withdrawal agreement and political declaration. Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson called it a “democratic disaster” and “national humiliation”, which he said would leave the UK “a de facto colony”.
Opposition to the deal is still focused on the backstop solution for the Irish border that would lock the UK into a customs union with the EU. EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier restated this week his hope that the backstop will never be used (see EUROPE 12154).
The UK attorney general was forced to publish his legal advice to the government on the deal, where he acknowledged the UK will not be granted the unilateral right to pull out of the backstop, something Brexiteers are still looking for.
The “meaningful vote” (including amendments to the withdrawal bill) will take place on Tuesday 11 December. Fasten your seat belt. (Sarah Collins)