EU Member States' Foreign Ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 10 December to take stock of the situation in the Sea of Azov, Venezuela, Iran, the Western Balkans and cooperation between the EU and the African Union.
Sea of Azov. The Council will return to the tensions in the Sea of Azov, first between the ministers of the Twenty-Eight, then at lunch with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Pavlo Klimkin.
According to one source, the Council should insist on the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the EU's support for Kiev. "We are not going to talk about sanctions now and we are not thinking about sending boats. It's about helping to de-escalate”, summarised one diplomat. If Europeans are divided on the need for new sanctions (see EUROPE 12147), "we must see what can be done to fight this economic strangulation" in the Sea of Azov, he added.
Another diplomatic source said that some EU financial programmes could be redirected to the east of the country, including Mariupol, which is located on the Sea of Azov, and a European official said ministers could discuss support for the ports in the Sea of Azov affected by the tensions.
Lunch with Mr Klimkin will be an opportunity to "experience the Kiev state of mind", according to one European source, but also, according to another, to ask Ukraine to exercise restraint, although it is in a difficult situation. Europeans are concerned about the introduction of martial law and the restriction of entry into Ukraine of Russian men aged 16 to 60 years, imposed by Kiev.
In addition, as announced by EUROPE (see EUROPE 12153), the Council is expected to adopt sanctions against nine persons in connection with the illegal elections in the Crimea. According to a European source, these people are all Ukrainian.
Western Balkans. Ministers will also discuss the Western Balkans, not their enlargement process, but the situation in the region. In particular, they should return to the relations between Serbia and Kosovo, within the framework of the dialogue.
But the debate should also focus on Pristina's imposition of new taxes on products from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina (see EUROPE 12143) and Kosovo's desire to transform its security forces into a real army (see EUROPE 12153). On the other hand, Serbia is pursuing extremely strong rhetoric against Kosovo.
"The High Representative is expected to be fully involved in the crisis. The dialogue is one of the main successes of her predecessor in this position, it is important that, on this point, the High Representative can play her role, be active”, explained one diplomat.
The name change process in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia should also be addressed, as should the post-electoral situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Venezuela. After initial discussions in October (see EUROPE 12117), the ministers will assess the feasibility of setting up a contact group with several neighbouring countries and regional organisations, which - without mediation - would be responsible for creating the conditions for a political dialogue between the Maduro regime and the political opposition. Discussions are to take place on how to set up this group, in particular identifying participating Member States.
At this stage, it will not be a question of sanctioning other persons close to the regime after the recent extension of the sanctions already in force (see EUROPE 12131).
The European Union, which recently increased its humanitarian aid to €55 million to help Venezuelans affected by the economic crisis, intends to demonstrate a united position with a view to the inauguration of Nicolás Maduro for a second presidential term, considering this process illegitimate.
Iran. The Council will also discuss Iran, including the nuclear agreement and the implementation of a special purpose vehicle that appears to be spinning, the increasing ballistic tests and Iran's destabilising role. While there is, according to one source, a great interest from Member States in how to participate in this 'vehicle', there are also legal risks to be taken into account. "Ministers will not discuss the technical aspects of the SPV. In view of the technical complications of this instrument, it is being discussed at the expert level”, said one diplomat, who explained that the objective was to "set it up as soon as possible, at the end of the year or early next year". "Discussions are ongoing on the exact form, the location, the person in charge, there is nothing decided", he explained.
According to a European source, work is continuing on sanctions against those responsible for attempted attacks in France and Denmark, but no decision should be taken to this effect (see EUROPE 12140).
Africa. Ministers will have an exchange of views on relations between the EU and the African Union (AU). The aim will be to ensure the follow-up to the AU/EU summit in Abidjan in April 2017 and to prepare the first meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the two twin institutions, scheduled for 21 and 22 January (see EUROPE 12146). Ministers will focus on three priorities: - peace, security and governance (a protocol was signed on 23 May between the EU and the AU to develop more strategic cooperation); - economic cooperation within the framework of the Africa-Europe Alliance for Sustainable Investment and Employment, which European Development Ministers discussed on 25 November in preparation for the Africa-Europe Forum on 17-18 December in Vienna (see EUROPE mentioned above); - cooperation within the framework of multilateralism on global issues. The elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, normally scheduled for 23 December, are not on the agenda.
Other topics. Diplomatic leaders should, briefly, come back to the Dutch idea of creating a regime of sanctions for human rights violations around the world, a kind of European "Magnitsky list" (see EUROPE 12132). This sanctions regime must be credible and stable, one source summed up, saying that if the sanctions were then overturned by the EU Court of Justice, it would be disastrous for the regime.
Without debate, the Council will adopt conclusions on Burma, in which it should highlight its concerns about the human rights situation, in particular the Rohingya, and on Libya, after the Palermo conference (see EUROPE 12137).
Conclusions will also be planned on the strategy on India (see EUROPE 12141), as well as on women, peace and security (WPS). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Aminata Niang and Mathieu Bion)