Poultry is the only meat that will see a strong increase in EU production and consumption while demand for traditional dairy products such as cheese should continue to grow. This is reflected in particular in the European Commission's report on the EU's agricultural outlook for 2018-2030 published on 6 December 2018.
The report shows that many factors will influence agricultural markets over the next decade.
“The consumer will become more conscious of his food, its sourcing, and its impact on the environment and climate change”, says the Commission. For producers this will result in higher production costs. “This will be reflected in alternative production systems, such as local, organic or other certified products being increasingly in demand. ”
But for farmers, there is also the risk of unbalanced competition with exporters from third countries.
The European Commissioner for Agriculture, Phil Hogan, who is not hiding his desire to return to the Commission for a second term, but this time with the Trade Portfolio, assured at the opening of the conference on agricultural prospects that the trade negotiations currently being conducted by the Commission are being conducted “on the basis that we are applying high standards in the Union and that we expect the same high standards from our trading partners”.
Decrease in agricultural land. The report projects a decline of total agricultural land in the EU, though at a slower pace than in the past decade, from 178 million hectares in 2018 to 176 million hectares in 2030. Cereal acreage is expected to further decline by 2030. In contrast, land used for fodder will increase slightly (22 million hectares in 2030).
The Commission considers that cereal prices will remain stable. The price of wheat would remain around 170 €/t. EU cereal production is expected to continue growing, and reach 325 million t by 2030 (compared to 284 million t for 2018).
Sugar consumption in the EU will decline by 5%, and EU sugar production is expected to reach 19.3 million tonnes by 2030 (18.6 million in 2018).
By 2030, the EU could supply close to 35% of the global demand for milk and dairy products, with a focus on value-added products (organic products, geographical indications, etc.). EU exports of dairy products are expected to grow on average by around 330 000 tonnes of milk equivalent per year. EU milk production should experience a modest increase (0.8% per year on average) over the period 2018-2030.
Overall meat consumption in the EU will decline, going from 69.3kg per capita in 2018 to 68.6 kg in 2030. EU beef production is estimated at 8.2 million tonnes in 2018. However, production is expected to then decrease, influenced by a smaller herd, low profitability and declining demand.
Wine production should stabilise over 2018-2030, while exports should continue growing, mainly due to sparkling wines and geographical indications. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)