From London, British Prime Minister Theresa May and, from Brussels, EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier considered on Wednesday 14 November that the Twenty-Seven and the United Kingdom had made major progress towards an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, without hiding the fact that many difficulties remained.
"After a long, detailed and impassioned debate", Ms May received the support of her government to recommend that the National Parliament ratify the draft text of an orderly Brexit on the table. According to her, this, “the best agreement that can be negotiated" is "in the best interest of our entire UK".
Welcoming the fact that the British government has assumed "its responsibilities", Mr Barnier welcomed this "fundamental" step, "the foundation of trust to build a new partnership" between "allies", once the United Kingdom has once again become a non-member country, on 29 March 2019.
In the meantime, the Commission informed the European Council that the conditions were in place for an extraordinary European summit, potentially on 25 November.
The margin for Ms May is extremely small given the initial hostile reactions of both the fiery Brexiters, Northern Ireland leaders in the government coalition and Scottish leaders hostile to Brexit.
The draft UK withdrawal agreement is the precondition for a post-Brexit transition period until the end of 2020, during which the United Kingdom will have the same rights and obligations as a Member State.
The main elements of the 585-page agreement are as follows: - the rights of European citizens residing in the United Kingdom and British citizens residing in the EU; - the balance of British budgetary commitments until the end of 2020; - a dispute resolution mechanism, first political and then via an arbitration panel, the EU Court of Justice being called upon to interpret EU law; - a legal solution to avoid the return of a physical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Safety net. The Irish question was the Gordian knot to be cut, the Brexit recreating a land border in the island of Ireland.
If an EU/UK free trade agreement is sealed by the end of 2020, the problem will be definitively resolved.
Failing agreement, in July 2020, the two sides may jointly decide to extend the transition period, and such a decision would have budgetary implications for the EU budget for 2021-2027.
Third option: the hypothetical establishment of a safety net ('backstop'). The whole of the United Kingdom would remain bound by a customs agreement with the EU ('EU/UK single customs territory') in order to avoid a border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, an unacceptable supposition for London.
Northern Ireland would remain "aligned" with Single Market rules and the Community Customs Code would apply to it, with Northern Irish products then benefiting from "unrestricted" access to the Single Market.
The Twenty-Seven have obtained guarantees that the United Kingdom, which would have access to the internal market without customs duties and quotas, will not enjoy an excessive competitive advantage.
Clauses prohibiting London from weakening certain standards (state aid, taxation, social and environmental policies) aim to "ensure that European and British companies compete on a level playing field", Barnier said.
One unknown issue remains regarding the access of EU fishermen to British waters and of British fishery products to the internal market. This "essential condition" for the safety net will be negotiated in the context of future relations, according to Mr Barnier.
If the backstop were to be put in place, the United Kingdom would not be able to give up unilaterally and would no longer have autonomy in its external trade policy.
Future relationship. "A discussed plan" to lay the "foundations for the ambitious partnership" that the Twenty-Seven want with the United Kingdom has also been published.
"We want a free trade area based on customs cooperation and a level playing field to achieve a duty-free environment for all goods", said Mr Barnier, before referring to energy, police, judicial, security and defence cooperation.
On Thursday, he will inform the European Parliament's Brexit task force , whose coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE, Belgium), said he was encouraged by the prospect of a "fair" agreement.
See the text of the agreement: http://bit.ly/2TdY08j (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)