The drought has led to a significant drop in EU cereal production, estimated at 8% below the average over the past five years (see EUROPE 12100). This is just one of the findings of the short-term outlook report for agricultural markets, published by the European Commission on Wednesday 3 October.
The report highlights that cereal production in 2018 is expected to be 284.3 million tonnes, i.e. a drop of 5% compared with 2017/2018. The wheat harvest (129 million tonnes in 2018) was down 9% compared with 2017. Consequently, the price of EU cereals peaked in August (for example, €50 per tonne for wheat and €60 per tonne for barley).
Climate conditions have also had an impact on the milk and dairy sector. The increase in EU milk collection is lower than expected, with a forecast of 166.6 million tonnes for 2018, i.e. +0.6% compared with 2017.
EU sugar production is expected to be below last year’s record levels, with forecasts of 19.2 million tonnes for 2018/2019, compared with 21.1 million for 2017/2018.
As for the meat sector, beef production is growing more than anticipated due to a reduced suckler cow herd in most member states, and a shortage of fodder linked to the drought, bringing slaughtering forward. Net beef production for 2018 is forecast at 8 million tonnes, i.e. a rise of 1.6% compared to 2017. Poultry production is also growing, and is expected to reach 14.9 million tonnes in 2018, compared with 14.6 million in 2017. As for pig meat, ample supply is keeping prices down.
Apple production is expected to reach the 2014/2015 record highs, with 12.8 million tonnes in 2018/2019, i.e. a 28% increase compared with last year.
For olive oil, production in 2017/2018 reached 2.18 million tonnes, i.e. 24% more than in 2016/2017. Production should continue to increase in 2018/2019, to 2.26 million tonnes. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)