According to a series of studies compiled by the European Commission in its annual Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) review, published on Friday 13 July, between 37% and 69% of jobs may be affected by automation in the future.
The report, it must be said, also brings good news: the macro-economic situation is in good shape, the level of employment of Europeans is still on the rise (although total hours worked remain below the pre-crisis level) and poverty is on the decline. However, the report also underlines the challenges brought about by two phenomena destabilising the labour market: - digitalisation of employment, and automation.
The impact this has is to “polarise” employment: medium-income employment is gradually becoming reduced to the benefit of high income and low income employment. Another finding is that: the demand for highly qualified workers is ever greater in low income jobs. This phenomenon has apparently gathered pace since 2011 due to the surge in digital platforms.
Collaborative platforms could represent “a greater problem” in the future – not to mention the fall in the quality of work: loss of autonomy, out-sourcing, forced swing to independent employment (with reduced social coverage), and uncertain legal protection of collective agreements. On the whole, the Commission thus notes an inversely proportional relationship between employment digitalisation and work satisfaction.
Above all, routine jobs are directly threatened due to the rise in robotics, with the number of robots having risen four-fold in 25 years (with Germany to the fore in the motor industry). The Commission says non-routine jobs will be threatened in time although the institution remains undecided about the magnitude of destruction.
The Commission cites figures ranging from 6% in Germany to 69% in the Czech Republic but considers that the incidence could be greater given recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Thus, it foresees destruction first of all in the manufacturing sector, then in farming, but very rapidly in services. In addition, robots are becoming ever cheaper, costing less than a human worker.
A positive point to the phenomenon is that: robotics should generate a surplus of productivity and make up for the consequences of Europe’s greying population.
The report (in English) can be consulted ion full at: https://bit.ly/2ujMmxM. (Original version in French by Pascal Hansens)