With publication on Thursday 5 July of the latest short-term outlook report (2018-2019) for EU agricultural markets, the European Commission confirms that fall in cereal production and the rise in milk production, tempered, however, by the unfavourable weather conditions.
The report highlights that total cereal production for 2018-2019 is expected to be 299.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.5% in comparison with 2017-2018.
Soft and durum wheat production is forecast to decline by 3% and 5% respectively compared to last year. The 2018-2019 maize harvest could be close to 64 million tonnes for the third consecutive year. The Commission notes that cereal stocks are ample and, despite strong global demand, “it is premature to anticipate any significant rise of world prices”. EU oilseed production are likely to decrease by 4.6% compared to last year’s record harvest.
Olive oil. Weather conditions have so far been favourable. Production is therefore expected to rise from 1.7 million tonnes in 2016-2017 to 2.2 million tonnes in 2017-2018.
Tomatoes. Production is expected to dip from 18.5 million tonnes in 2017 to 17.1 million tonnes in 2018. EU peach and nectarine production is likely to decrease compared to 2017’s record harvest, down to 3.8 million tonnes in 2018 compared to 4.3 million tonnes in 2017.
Sugar. Given the ending of quotas from 1 October 2017, EU sugar production continues to increase and is expected to reach 2.6 million tonnes in 2018-2019, up from 2.2 million tonnes in 2017/2018.
Milk. Due to unfavourable weather conditions, the increase of EU milk production was tempered. It is expected to rise from 165.6 million tonnes in 2017 and 167.2 million tonnes in 2018.
Meat. Meat production is expected to rise from 47.1 million tonnes in 2017 to 47.7 million tonnes in 2018 (with beef production increasing slightly). In the pig meat sector, supply is growing while exports are struggling to follow, thus keeping prices down. Poultry imports are down as Brazilian supply falls, sustaining rising prices even as EU production increases. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)