The EU is gearing up for another Brexit crisis as talks enter the final stretch. But this time it’s not just a deal on the Irish border but the withdrawal treaty itself that is in danger.
Frustration in Brussels is growing, as evidenced by a now-infamous off-the-record briefing in which a senior EU official described the UK’s approach as “fantasy”.
EU negotiators say British prime minister Theresa May is deliberately dragging her feet on the Irish backstop - and on a future customs partnership - in order to paint her party, and the Democratic Unionist MPs supporting her, into a corner. The UK is also holding out on agreeing a role for the European Court of Justice post-Brexit, which the EU sees as another negotiating tactic that could eventually lead both sides off a cliff edge.
While there is a willingness to help Ms May achieve progress in June, EU leaders will not agree to a bad Brexit deal at any cost.
“We will not throw her under a bus,” said one senior EU official close to the talks, “but on the other hand we will not give her any gifts. She is the most sensible person in the Tory party to deal with now, but if there is an accident with Madame May, it will not be because of Europe.”
The EU side is still waiting for a worked up proposal for the Irish backstop, the controversial annex to the withdrawal treaty that, as currently drafted, keeps Northern Ireland in the customs union and bits of the single market (for agriculture, electricity, and selected other areas).
It was reported in The Sun newspaper this week that Brexit secretary David Davis is preparing an alternative scenario that would see Northern Ireland apply both EU and UK regulations, and create a new border “buffer zone” for local farmers and businesses where no trade barriers would apply.
“Proposals on paper - that’s the thing everybody is expecting,” said an EU official. “I don’t see how we can take a quantum leap for the future if we are nowhere on Ireland.”
The EU has also warned the UK that it will not get what it wants out of future cooperation on internal security, particularly a UK demand to continue accessing encrypted information from the Galileo satellite (see EUROPE 12027) and remaining part of the European Arrest Warrant.
“How far can you go in testing the UK as a special country without disturbing the balance with other countries and preserving EU institutional autonomy?” the EU source said. “There, the world has to change, even if there will be ongoing cooperation.”
The EU is “fairly on the same page” when it comes to foreign policy, sources say, but no progress at all has been made on trade.
So far all that is on the table is a free trade agreement, which will take years to negotiate, particularly as EU countries will be looking for strong safeguards that the UK will not use Brexit to undercut EU tax, health and safety or climate rules - the so-called “level playing field”.
“If it’s an FTA, you need to start from scratch, but the much bigger issue is the level playing field - that will be the biggest obstacle and take the most time,” the EU source said.
A burgeoning trade war between the EU and US has not helped matters, and will distract European leaders at the June summit, along with fears of a new Italian sovereign debt crisis. EU leaders see it as next to impossible.
“The Brits are discovering the so-called special relationship [with the US] means nothing,” said the EU source. “Here is this senile old guy tearing up the rules, and the Europeans don’t know how to operate.”
EU and UK officials meet for a further round of talks next week. which could continue into the following two weeks ahead of the June summit. (Sarah Collins)